What is Kenya's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Current Situation

Emissions profile

Kenya emitted 94.5 MtCO2e (excluding LULUCF) in 2022.1 The agriculture sector was responsible for 47% of the country’s total emissions, followed by energy at 42%.2,3 The remaining 10% is mostly split between industrial processes (6.2%) and waste (3.3%).

Agriculture emissions are dominated by methane and nitrous oxide from livestock and crops.4 Methane from agriculture is responsible for almost a third of the country’s emissions. Within the energy sector, transport is the highest emitting end-use sector (14%), followed by fossil fuel industries (12%) and buildings (10%).5

Kenya’s power sector emits very little due to the dominant share of renewables in electricity generation. However, three-quarters of Kenyan households use biofuels such as wood and charcoal for cooking, with adverse environmental and health outcomes.6,7 Shifting cooking appliances to electric and clean cooking rather than biomass and gas will be an important aspect of meeting Sustainable Development Goals8 while reducing emissions.

While our analysis mainly focuses on non-LULUCF emissions, the LULUCF sector is a significant source of GHG emissions in Kenya. LULUCF has been responsible for almost one-third of total emissions over the last 10 years with a majority from conversion of grasslands.9 Kenya would need to step up measures in this sector ranging from afforestation, sustainable grassland and pasture management practices among others to reduce emissions. In 2023, Kenya launched the Jaza Miti 15 billion trees by 2032 campaign to increase forest cover to 30%10 which can contribute to reduced emissions.

Kenya's 2022 GHG emissions

excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions. Individual sector rounding may lead to small inconsistencies in total sum.

Energy overview and main policy gaps

In 2024, 61% of Kenya’s primary energy came from biomass and waste.11 Most of this was used for household heating and cooking.12,13 Oil accounted for 17% of the mix and was mainly used in the transport sector, while renewables (wind, solar, geothermal, hydro and biogas) constituted a 16% share.14 Coal accounted for 3%, primarily driven by industry energy use. Coal use in industry almost tripled between 2010-2020, driven by demand in the cement sector.15 (See Industry).

Kenya has seen an increase in wind capacity in recent years, mainly due to the large-scale Lake Turkana Wind Farm.16 Although renewables development as a whole has improved energy access for Kenyan families, many households still rely on biofuels for cooking as well as kerosene and gas.17 Transitioning to electric cooking can bring further health and socio-economic benefits through reduced indoor air pollution.18

Kenya’s abundant renewable resources place it as a potential leader in clean energy. However, despite a 100% renewable energy target by 2030, coal and nuclear (considered as clean energy by Kenya) remains a part of long-term energy planning.19 Kenyan authorities aim to diversify its energy mix by introducing nuclear. The construction of its first nuclear power plant is planned to start in 2027 and may be commissioned by the mid-2030s with a capacity of 1 GW.20 While construction of the Lamu and Kitui coal plants was abandoned, any new plans risk saddling Kenya with stranded assets, a fate which can easily be avoided by supporting its already well-established renewables sector.21

Targets and commitments

2035 Unconditional target in 2025 NDC

As expressed by the country:

  • Reduce emissions by 35% by 2035 relative to the BAU scenario of 215MtCO2e in 2035. Kenya will bear 20% of the mitigation costs which is equivalent to 15.05 MtCO2e.22

When excluding LULUCF, Kenya’s unconditional target translates to:

  • 169 MtCO2e.23

2035 Conditional target in 2025 NDC:

As expressed by the country:

  • Reduce emissions by 35% by 2035 relative to the BAU scenario of 215 MtCO2e in 2035. International climate finance will cater for 80% of the mitigation costs which is equivalent to 75.25 MtCO2e

When excluding LULUCF, Kenya’s conditional target translates to:

  • 118 MtCO2e.24

2030 Unconditional target in 2020 NDC:

As expressed by the country:

  • Reduce emissions by 32% by 2030 (incl. LULUCF) compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario of 143 MtCO2e. Kenya will bear 21% of the mitigation costs.25

When excluding LULUCF, Kenya’s unconditional target translates to:

  • 113 MtCO2e in 2030, or 74% above 2010 levels.26

2030 Conditional target in 2020 NDC:

As expressed by the country:

  • Reduce emissions by 32% by 2030 (incl. LULUCF) compared to the BAU scenario of 143 MtCO2e. To be achieved, the international community is expected to bear 79% of the mitigation costs.27

When excluding LULUCF, Kenya’s conditional target translates to:

  • 82 MtCO2e, or 27% above 2010 levels.28

Long-term target

Kenya is in the process of finalising its LT-LEDS.

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