Current Situation

Last update: 28 May 2024

Emissions profile

Kenya emitted 80 MtCO₂e (excluding LULUCF) in 2019.¹ The agriculture sector is responsible for half of the country’s total emissions, followed by energy (41%). The remaining 9% is mostly split between industrial processes and waste.

Agriculture emissions are dominated by methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) from livestock and crops.² Within the energy sector, transport is the highest emitting end-use sector (14% of economy-wide emissions excl. LULUCF), followed by fugitive emissions (12%), buildings³ (10%), industrial energy use (3%), and power (2%).⁴

Kenya’s power sector emits very little due to the dominant share of renewables (94%) in electricity generation.⁵ However, three quarters of Kenyan households use biofuels such as wood and charcoal for cooking, with adverse environmental and health outcomes.⁶^,⁷ Shifting cooking appliances to electric rather than gas stoves will be an important aspect of meeting Kenya’s Sustainable Development Goals while reducing emissions.

Our analysis focuses exclusively on non-LULUCF emissions. However, the LULUCF sector is a major emitter in Kenya. Due to deforestation, LULUCF has been responsible for almost one-third of total emissions over the last 20 years.⁸

Graph description

Historical emissions per gas and per sector.

Data References
- PRIMAP-Hist 2023. Energy sub-sectors' emissions based on IEA GHG Emissions from Energy 2023.

Energy overview and main policy gaps

In 2020, 64% of Kenya’s primary energy came from biofuels and waste.⁹ Most of this was used for household heating and cooking.¹⁰ Oil accounted for 17% of the mix and was mainly used in the transport sector, while renewables (wind, solar, geothermal, and hydro and biogas) constituted a 16% share.¹¹

Kenya has seen an increase in wind capacity in recent years, mainly due to the large-scale Lake Turkana Wind Farm.¹² Renewables development as a whole has improved energy access for Kenyan families.¹³ While Kenya’s energy mix relies heavily on renewables, this is mostly based on hydropower which comes with sustainability risks that can be mitigated through the increase of variable renewables such as wind and solar.

Kenyan authorities aim to diversify its energy mix by introducing nuclear. The construction of its first nuclear power plant is planned to start in 2027 and may be commissioned by the mid-2030s with a capacity of 1 GW.¹⁴

Kenya’s abundant renewable resources place it as a potential leader in clean energy. However, coal remains a part of long term energy planning through the construction of the Lamu and Kitui coal plants.¹⁵ This risks saddling Kenya with stranded assets, a fate which can easily be avoided by supporting its already well established renewables sector.

Targets and commitments

Unconditional NDC target:

As expressed by the country:

Reduce emissions by 32% by 2030 (incl. LULUCF) compared to the business-as-usual scenario of 143 MtCO₂e. Kenya will bear 21% of the mitigation costs.¹⁶

Re-expressed, excluding LULUCF:
126 MtCO₂e in 2030, or 104% above 2010 levels.¹⁷

Conditional NDC target:

As expressed by the country:

Reduce emissions by 32% by 2030 (incl. LULUCF) compared to the business-as-usual scenario of 143 MtCO₂e. To be achieved, the international community is expected to bear 79% of the mitigation costs.¹⁸

Re-expressed, excluding LULUCF:
108 MtCO₂e, or 75% above 2010 levels.¹⁹

Sectoral coverage:

Agriculture, Waste, Industry (processes), Energy, LULUCF

Long-term target :

Reduce emissions to 21-48 MtCO₂e by 2050 (incl. LULUCF). Kenya’s 2050 target is 62-89 MtCO₂e when LULUCF is excluded.²⁰

Johannes Gütschow and Mika Pflüger, “The PRIMAP-Hist National Historical Emissions Time Series (1750-2021) v2.4.2” (zenodo, March 2023), ; IEA, “World Energy Balances 2023” (IEA, 2023), https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/world-energy-balances ↩
Ministry of Environment and Forestry, “Kenya’s Updated Nationally Determined Contribution” (Government of Kenya, 2020). ↩
This share excludes emissions from residential cooking. Due to biomass use, cooking emissions are 20.5 MtCO₂e.Ministry of Energy and Clean Cooking Association of Kenya, “Kenya Household Cooking Sector Study: Assessment of the Supply and Demand of Cooking Solutions at the Household Level” (Government of Kenya, 2019) ↩
Gütschow and Pflüger, “The PRIMAP-Hist National Historical Emissions Time Series (1750-2021) v2.4.2”; IEA, “World Energy Balances 2023.” ↩
IEA, “Kenya - Countries & Regions,” IEA, 2022 ↩
Ministry of Energy and Clean Cooking Association of Kenya, “Kenya Household Cooking Sector Study: Assessment of the Supply and Demand of Cooking Solutions at the Household Level.” ↩
Tessa Schiefer et al., “The Kenyan Cooking Sector - Opportunities for Climate Action and Sustainable Development,” Ambition to Action (NewClimate Institute, EED Advisory, 2021) ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “Kenya. May 2022,” Climate Analytics, NewClimate Institute, 2022 ↩
IEA, “Kenya - Countries & Regions.” ↩
Ministry of Energy and Clean Cooking Association of Kenya, “Kenya Household Cooking Sector Study: Assessment of the Supply and Demand of Cooking Solutions at the Household Level.” ↩
IEA, “Kenya - Countries & Regions.” ↩
Finnfund, “Socio-Economic Impact of Lake Turkana Wind Power in Marsabit,” 2020 ↩
Sydney Oluoch et al., “Assessment of Public Awareness, Acceptance and Attitudes towards Renewable Energy in Kenya.,” Scientific African 9 (September 1, 2020): e00512 ↩
Enerdata, “Kenya Intends to Start Building Its First Nuclear Power Plant in 2027 | Enerdata,” September 27, 2023 ↩
Government of Kenya, “Updated Least Cost Power Development Plan: Study Period 2020-2040,” 2021 ↩
Ministry of Environment and Forestry, “Kenya’s Updated Nationally Determined Contribution.” ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “Kenya. May 2022.” ↩
Ministry of Environment and Forestry, “Kenya’s Updated Nationally Determined Contribution.” ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “Kenya. May 2022.” ↩
Ministry of Environment and Forestry, “The National Long Term Low Emissions Development Strategy 2022-2050” (Government of Kenya, 2022). ↩

What is Kenya's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Emissions profile

Kenya's 2019 GHG emissions

excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Energy overview and main policy gaps

Targets and commitments

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