What is Kenya's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Kenya
Economy wide
With international support, Kenya will be able to implement its domestic emissions pathway and close the gap between its fair share level and domestic emissions level. Paris compatible pathways show emissions levels of 37-50 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 or a reduction of 19-41% below 2010 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF emissions.
Kenya's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Conditional NDC
Kenya’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets a 32% emissions reduction below BAU by 2030, with 79% of mitigation costs conditional on international support. This translates to a conditional target of 103% above 2010 emission levels or 108 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, excluding LULUCF.1
Current policy projection
Current policies indicate that Kenya is on track to meeting its conditional NDC commitment. The level of uncertainties on LULUCF emissions might strongly influence the target compatibility with Paris Agreement compatible pathways.
Net zero
Kenya’s NDC only alludes to a net-zero target by 2050 stating that the NDC implementation ‘is part of a transformation to a low-emission society by 2050’.2 However, as of February 2023, Kenya has not yet submitted any long term strategy to the UNFCCC.
2050 Ambition
On a net zero trajectory, 1.5°C compatible pathways would require Kenya´s remaining GHG emissions level to be 26-39 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050, or 37-58% below 2010 levels excluding LULUCF. Reducing LULUCF emissions to become a sink will be key for the country to reach net zero GHG and in the long-term to balance its remaining emissions.3 Measures in the agriculture and energy sectors are key to achieving decarbonisation. In particular, moving away from the use of biomass in cooking is a key area of focus that will enable the transition to clean and sustainable energy for cooking and steer emissions reductions from the forestry sector.4
Decarbonisation
Abandonment of plans for coal and other fossil fuel development whilst increasing the development of renewable energy sources will aid the country's alignment with Paris compatible pathways.5
Sectors
Power
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Renewable energy makes up about 90% of Kenya’s power mix, with geothermal at 49%, followed by hydro at 40%.6 This is expected to rise to 100% by 2030 with plans to increase geothermal by 123%.7
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While Kenya is well positioned to soon reach a fully decarbonised power mix, this is likely to change should the planned coal capacity be implemented.8,9 Its only proposed coal plant experienced massive opposition and a court case stopped its further development.10 Development of the coal plant will jeopardise plans of achieving 100% renewable power by 2030, face the risk of high-cost stranded assets and be locked-in in a carbon intensive pathway.
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Expanding access to a decarbonised and affordable electricity mix will be key to meeting electricity demand sustainably while reducing reliance on fossil gas for non-electric cooking, which is currently prioritised by the government.
Transport
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The transport sector contributed around 6% of total GHG emissions in 2017.
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1.5°C compatible pathways show electricity’s share in the sector increasing from 0% in 2019 to 11-21% by 2030 and 44% by 2050.
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The country is in the process of implementing measures such as bus rapid transit (BRT), developing Non-Motorized Transport (NMT) infrastructure, incentivising rail transport and the uptake and promotion of low-carbon technologies.11 These measures are unlikely to be sufficient to place Kenya on a Paris Agreement-compatible pathway.