What is Kenya's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Current Situation

Last update: 1 December 2023

Emissions profile

Kenya’s emissions were 71 MtCO₂e/yr in 2017 and is projected to be around 90-94 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 under current policies.1 Excluding LULUCF, Kenya emissions reached around 81 MtCO₂e in 2019.

Agriculture is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in Kenya, accounting for 48%of overall emissions in 2017. This was followed by energy and LULUCF at 30% and 25%, respectively. Agriculture emissions are dominated by methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) from livestock and crops.2 The dairy sector is the main driver of emissions within agriculture, contributing to around 3.5% of total national GDP in 2017.3,4 Energy sector emissions are mainly from combustion, thermal plants for power generation, use of fossil fuels in the transport sector as well as kerosene for household cooking, lighting and heating and other biomass in cooking and heating among others.5,6 LULUCF emissions are mostly from land conversion for agriculture, deforestation and burning of cropwaste and remains in agricultural land.7 It is projected that LULUCF will be the second largest emitting sector after agriculture by 2030.8,9

Kenya's current GHG emissions

MtCO₂e/yr

Energy system

More than 60% of Kenya's primary energy comes from biomass use, the majority being the use of traditional biomass for heating and cooking appliances, followed by oil consumption, mostly in the transport sector.10 In its 2020 Voluntary National Report (VNR) on Sustainable development goals (SDGs), Kenya reported that in 2019, 75% of the population in Kenya still relied on unclean fuels, mostly traditional biomass, charcoal and kerosene.11 Besides the high emissions challenge with the use of unclean fuels, it also caused respiratory illnesses, mostly among women and children who are responsible for household cooking.12,13 A 2019 cooking survey report by the Ministry of Energy found that only 3% of the population had access to electric cooking appliances and out of this just 2.9% used electricity for cooking.14 30% of the population used liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for cooking in combination with other sources, mainly firewood and charcoal.15,16

The country has prioritised access to electricity and other non-electric cooking in its policies which include distribution of affordable gas cylinders through the Mwananchi gas project, to low-income households, development of off-grid solar through the KOSAP project, promotion of electric cooking and biogas uptake among other strategies.17,18 In 2019 Kenya adopted the Energy Act (2019) that sets out key provisions in the energy sector, as envisioned by the 2018 Energy Policy and Vision 2030 (Third Medium Term - MTPIII), reiterating its vision of low-carbon energy development and universal access to sustainable energy for all by 2030.19,20,21

Targets and commitments

NDC target

  • 32% below BAU by 2030 (incl. LULUCF).22,23
  • Kenya indicates in its NDC that it will finance 21% of the expected mitigation costs itself, with the remaining 79% conditional on international support.

Unconditional target:

  • Estimated at 126 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 or 103% above 2010 levels by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).24

Conditional target:

  • Estimated at 108 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 or 74% above 2010 levels by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).25

Market mechanisms

  • There is intention to engage in market mechanisms based on national legislation. The Ministry of Finance is currently developing the Kenya Emissions Trading System for this purpose.26

Long-term target

  • Kenya has not set a long-term target but is in the process of developing its long-term low carbon development strategy.27,28,29

Sectoral targets

Kenya’s updated NDC does not provide sectoral targets.1 These will be released in the upcoming Mitigation Technical Analysis Report (MTAR).8 The 2018-2022 National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP)9 and MTAR outlines sectoral targets related to the 2015 NDC targeting a 30% emission reduction relative to BAU.

Energy

  • Reduce energy demand by 6.09 MtCO₂e by 2030 relative to BAU.30

  • Develop and distribute 4 million improved biomass stoves by 2022.31

Power

  • Emission reduction goal of up to 9.32 MtCO₂e/yr in the power sector relative to BAU.32

  • Development of 2405 MW in grid-connected renewable energy capacity.17,20

Transport

  • Reduce transport emissions by 3.46 MtCO₂e by 2030 relative to BAU through development of bus rapid transit (BRT) and Non-Motorised Transport (NMT) infrastructure, electric vehicles, rail transport and uptake and promotion of low-carbon technologies in the aviation sector.33

Waste

  • A target of 0.39 MtCO₂e is outlined in the MTAR2.
  • Kenya’s National Sustainable Waste Management Policy outlines a zero-waste principle through a ‘waste hierarchy and circular economy’ approach.34 Currently just 10% of waste generated is recycled.35

Agriculture

  • A target of 2.77 MtCO₂e is set for the agriculture sector.36
  • The 2016-2026 Climate Smart Agriculture Strategy outlines strategies to meet this target. They include among others, reduced use of fire to manage croplands, ‘conservation tillage’ and agroforestry that have mitigation potentials of 0.29, 1.09 and 4.16 MtCO₂e by 2030.37,38,39

LULUCF

  • Reduce forestry emissions 20.1 MtCO₂e by 2030 relative to BAU.40,41

Industry (processes)

  • Reduce emissions by 0.78 MtCO₂e by 2030 relative to BAU.42 Strategies set out to achieve this in the NCCAP include implementation of the charcoal sector NAMA and energy efficiency in industrial processes with mitigation potential of 5 MtCO₂e/yr and 1.1 MtCO₂e/yr respectively by 2030.43

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