What is Kenya's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Kenya's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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In its updated NDC, Kenya envisages reductions of 3.46 MtCO₂e for this sector by 20304 through bus rapid transit (BRT) and Non-Motorised Transport (NMT) infrastructure, electric vehicles, rail transport and the uptake and promotion of low-carbon technologies in the aviation sector.5 While this will contribute to its emission reduction target as stated in the NDC, the country would need to implement stronger measures to decarbonise its transport sector in line with the Paris Agreement.
To embark on a 1.5°C compatible pathway, an increase in the share of electricity in the energy mix will be necessary, reaching around 11-21% by 2030 and 44% by 2050, from almost 0% in 2019. Our analysis also shows a significant ramp-up of biofuels in the sector, accounting for up to 61% by 2050.
Kenya has developed e-mobility standards and has recently embarked on establishing electric charging hubs in Nairobi and Nakuru.6,7 Rolling out infrastructure is critical to ensuring uptake of electric vehicles, which will be necessary if the 1.5°C compatible electricity share of 11-21% is to be met. The Kenyan grid is already able to support such a target without any additional capacity,8 meaning that an accelerated infrastructure rollout could help Kenya achieve a Paris compatible transport sector.
Kenya's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Kenya
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
10
|
5 to
5
|
3 to
3
|
0 to
1
|
2047 to
2050
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-50 to
-48%
|
-70 to
-70%
|
-100 to
-86%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
0
|
11 to
21
|
27 to
36
|
44 to
44
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
0
|
6 to
11
|
5 to
58
|
10 to
61
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
1 to
9
|
26 to
34
|
32 to
55
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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