What is Kenya's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
Kenya’s power mix already benefits from a high share of renewables of around 90%, including geothermal, hydro, wind, solar and bio-fuels and biomass for heating and household cooking.1,2 Renewable share is set to increase steadily to around 100% by 2030 through the NCCAP which anticipates an increase of over 80% from 2651 MW to 4821 MW by 2022 and rising to over 5000 MW by 2030.3,4,5 The proposed 100% renewable energy target by 2030 set by government is in line with our analysed Paris Agreement compatible pathways. Increasing a decarbonised and affordable electricity mix will be key to meet electricity demand on a sustainable path and reduce reliance on gas fuel for non-electric cooking as prioritised by the country.
Kenya's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
In 2019, the power sector’s carbon intensity was 108 gCO2/kwh. With an already significant share of renewables in its power mix, Kenya is well positioned to fully decarbonise its power system in the current decade.
While some of the assessed pathways show negative emission technologies being introduced in the power sector by 2050, this is unlikely to be necessary as Kenya has high potential to increase its land sink, thus relying more on renewables penetration in the power sector than carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches.
Reaching a fully decarbonised power sector will require the decommissioning of the thermal plants as set out in the National Climate Change Action Plan and abandoning plans for coal and other fossil fuels4 that would jeopardise the likelihood for the country to align with a 1.5°C compatible pathway. After widespread opposition from local and environmental groups, Kenyan courts suspended construction of the Lamu Coal Power Station. Strong commitment to keeping coal out of Kenya’s future energy plans will be important to ensuring the country’s power sector will be 1.5°C compatible.
6,7,8
Kenya's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Kenya to be on the order of USD 0.7 to 2.8 billion by 2030 and 0.6 to 4.5 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors, growing energy demand, and the expansion of electricity access. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Kenya's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Kenya
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
107
|
0 to
1
|
-3 to
0
|
-52 to
-1
|
2025
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-100 to
-99%
|
-103 to
-100%
|
-149 to
-101%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
89
|
100 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
11
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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