Ukraine

Last update: 1 June 2021

Economy wide

This analysis was conducted on the basis of Ukraine’s 2021 updated nationally determined contribution and before the brutal and unwarranted Russian military invasion in the country.

We are publishing it to show that the Ukrainian government had plans in place to facilitate a transition to a low carbon economy.

Once peace is restored, in addition to very large reconstruction and humanitarian needs, Ukraine will need international support to build a climate-resilient society and economy in line with the Paris Agreement.

Ukraine's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Net zero

Ukraine’s updated NDC includes a commitment to achieve net zero emissions by 2060.

2050 Ambition

Our analysis shows that GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) need to be reduced by 92-97% below 1990 levels by 2050 or reach levels 30-74 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF. Remaining emissions will need to be balanced by negative emissions from the land sector or other carbon dioxide removal approaches. However, recent trends show Ukraine’s forestry emissions are on the cusp of becoming a net source of emissions, which will need to be reversed to align with a 1.5°C compatible pathway.

Long-term decarbonisation

The draft Green Energy Transition Until 2050 also specifies that a 70% share of renewable energy in the power sector is technically feasible, however there are currently no such long-term targets adopted.¹

2030 Ambition

Ukraine updated its NDC in July 2021, strengthening it significantly from at least a 40% reduction below 1990 levels (41% excluding LULUCF emissions) to a 65% reduction below 1990 levels (66% excluding LULUCF). This still falls considerably short of the 85% reduction by 2030 needed to be aligned with the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement. Ukraine would require additional policies to meet its new target, let alone a 1.5°C compatible target.

Sectors

Power

The Ukrainian government projects a renewable share of power generation of just 13%, far short of a 1.5°C compatible share of 67%. The strategy also forecasts a fossil fuel share of 34% in 2030, which is more than double the upper limit of a 1.5°C compatible range of 8-16%, and only marginally lower than the 39% reported in 2020.
This strategy is currently under review, making now an ideal time to update it with ambitious 1.5°C compatible targets for renewable energy generation and a coal phase-out.

Buildings

To ensure Ukraine is aligned with the illustrative 1.5°C pathways, direct emissions from buildings should decline to around one fifth of their 1990 levels by 2030, and reach zero between 2040 and 2050.
Recent efforts to improve the energy efficiency of Ukraine’s building stock have centred on funds and loans to implement upgrades to residential buildings, but the scale of funding is not yet sufficient to achieve the wholesale changes necessary.

Transport

Transport emissions would be allowed to rise to 2030 under the 64% reduction target set in Ukraine’s updated NDC, as emissions in 2017 were already 69% below 1990 levels.
A slight increase of the current target to 66% below 1990 levels would place it at the edge of the range of illustrative 1.5°C pathways (66-76%).
Ukraine’s National Transport Strategy is lacking in detail, with many targets not quantified, including the “development of cycling infrastructure”, “allocation of separate lanes for public transport”, and “increase the share of public transport”.

Industry

The source of over a fifth of Ukraine’s total GHG emissions in 2019, the industry sector has seen decreasing emissions since the mid 2000’s.
Despite this decline, illustrative 1.5°C pathways show both energy and process emissions could fall further to 2030, by at least 42% and 38% below 2017 levels respectively (92% and 73% below 1990 levels respectively).
Ukraine’s carbon tax, one of the lowest carbon tax in the world at EUR 0.33/tCO₂, has proven virtually ineffective in reducing emissions since it began in 2011, though an emissions trading scheme is scheduled to commence in 2025.

While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability. ↩

What is Ukraine's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?