What is Ukraine's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
This analysis was conducted on the basis of Ukraine’s 2021 updated nationally determined contribution and before the brutal and unwarranted Russian military invasion in the country.
We are publishing it to show that the Ukrainian government had plans in place to facilitate a transition to a low carbon economy.
Once peace is restored, in addition to very large reconstruction and humanitarian needs, Ukraine will need international support to build a climate-resilient society and economy in line with the Paris Agreement.
Ukraine saw a dramatic collapse in GHG emissions after the dissolution of the Soviet Union from 1990 onwards. But emissions started to steadily rise again from the late 1990s until the onset of the global financial crisis.1 As a result of the economic slowdown, emissions were falling again across almost all sectors over the subsequent decade, reaching 64% below 1990 levels in 2018 (excluding LULUCF emissions).
The waste and LULUCF sectors are exceptions from this downward trend. Waste emissions in 2019 were roughly the same as they were in 1990, while the LULUCF sector has transformed from a considerable emissions sink in 1990 (–59MtCO₂e/1990) to be net neutral. This is primarily due to a large increase in emissions from cropland over this period.
Ukraine's current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Last available LULUCF data point: 2.644 Mt CO2eq (2018)
Data References
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Energy system
Ukraine is in the midst of an energy crisis. High levels of incurred debt and a lack of long-term energy policy planning have resulted in a cut to feed-in tariffs offered for renewable energy generation.2,3 Under the previously high feed-in tariffs, renewable energy capacity tripled in 2019, reaching 6.4 GW, but lower feed-in tariffs may provide a barrier to maintaining such levels of investment.4
In 2019, Ukraine’s primary energy mix was made up primarily of coal (29%), gas (26%), and nuclear (24%). The rest was primarily from oil (15%), with renewables and biomass making up less than 5%.
Ukraine’s Energy Strategy to 2035 outlines an intent to deregulate the coal sector in order to increase efficiency, alongside its intent to close unprofitable state-owned coal mines by 2025.5 The strategy also includes a plan to subsidise natural gas production for the purpose of encouraging exports and domestic consumption.
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
Base year emissions target
NDC target
- 65% below 1990 by 2030 (incl. LULUCF).
- 66% below 1990 by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).
Market mechanisms
- An emissions trading scheme is set to commence by 2025, but no emissions cap has been set yet.
Long-term target
- As part of its updated NDC, Ukraine has committed to reaching net zero emissions by 2060.
Sectoral targets
Power
- At least 13% of total electricity generation to be from renewables by 2030 (25% by 2035).
Transport
- 60% reduction in emissions below 1990 levels by 2030.