Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

This analysis was conducted on the basis of Ukraine’s 2021 updated nationally determined contribution and before the brutal and unwarranted Russian military invasion in the country.

We are publishing it to show that the Ukrainian government had plans in place to facilitate a transition to a low carbon economy.

Once peace is restored, in addition to very large reconstruction and humanitarian needs, Ukraine will need international support to build a climate-resilient society and economy in line with the Paris Agreement.

In July 2021, Ukraine updated its 2030 emissions target from a 40% reduction below 1990 levels to 65% below 1990 levels including LULUCF emissions (66% excl. LULUCF).¹^,² A reduction of this magnitude is moderately greater than what is projected in 2030 under current policies (54%), but falls short of the 85% reduction that would be aligned with the 1.5°C temperature limit of the Paris Agreement.³

Illustrative 1.5°C pathways show emissions falling from current levels (332MtCO₂e/yr in 2018) to 142 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030. Ukraine’s new target instead allows emissions to remain roughly at current levels to 2030.

Ukraine's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long-term pathway

As part of Ukraine’s recently updated NDC, the country aims to achieve net zero GHG emissions in 2060, an improvement on the 2070 date outlined in its draft Green Energy Transition Until 2050. Our analysis shows that GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) should be reduced by 92-97% below 1990 levels by 2050 or reach levels 30-74 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF. ⁴ Remaining emissions will need to be balanced by negative emissions from the land sector or other carbon dioxide removal approaches.

However, recent trends in forestry emissions show that the sector is on the cusp of becoming a source of GHG emissions rather than a sink as it is currently. This process is mainly being driven by deforestation. It is critical that in its long-term strategy, Ukraine considers the role of the forestry sector in sequestering emissions (and therefore halting deforestation) to reach net zero GHG.⁵^,⁶

In 1.5°C compatible scenarios, CO₂ emissions fall by 96% below 1990 levels by 2040, before dropping to zero by 2050. The remaining emissions in 2050 are primarily from the agriculture sector and industry processes, non-energy related emissions currently considered to be difficult to abate. Such remaining emissions may require the utilisation of negative emissions technologies in order to reach net zero, with bioenergy with carbon capture and storage constituting a significant share of total primary energy demand by 2040 in 1.5°C compatible pathways.

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

Ukraine currently has modest targets in place for the power and transport sectors, setting a renewable energy target of at least 13% of total electricity generation by 2030.⁷ In its National Transport Strategy, Ukraine adopted target of achieving a 60% reduction in transport related emissions below 1990 levels by 2030.⁸

Both of these targets are lacking in ambition. Transport emissions were already 69% below 1990 levels in 2018 and the generation from renewables is forecasted to reach 17% of total power generation in 2030 under current policies.⁹^,¹⁰

The share of total primary energy supply made up from renewable energy sources is forecast to reach 17% by 2030. This falls short of all but one 1.5°C compatible pathways for Ukraine, with some scenarios showing a 29% renewable share is possible.¹¹

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Ukraine. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	1990 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	943	332	140 114 to 176	74 63 to 93	56 30 to 73	2067
Relative to reference year in %			-85% -88 to -81%	-92% -93 to -90%	-94% -97 to -92%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	704	222	105 73 to 128	44 4 to 58	11 2 to 38	2058
Relative to reference year in %			-85% -90 to -82%	-94% -99 to -92%	-98% -100 to -95%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: Climate Action Tracker 2021 update
- Download data as CSV

Government of Ukraine. Intended Nationally Determined Contribution of Ukraine to a New Global Climate Agreement. (2015). ↩
Government of Ukraine. Ukraine will intensify its participation in the global fight against climate change – President at the International Climate Ambition Summit. (2020). ↩
Government of Ukraine. Ukraine. 2020 National Inventory Report (NIR). (2020). ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability. ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Ukraine | June 2020 Update. (2020). ↩
Global Forest Watch. Ukraine Deforestation Rates & Statistics | GFW. (2020). ↩
Government of Ukraine. On approval of the National Transport Strategy of Ukraine for the period up to 2030. (2018). ↩
Government of Ukraine. Green Energy Transition of Ukraine until 2050. (2020). ↩
Government of Ukraine. 2020 Common Reporting Format (CRF) Table. (2020). ↩
Government of Ukraine. On approval of the National Transport Strategy of Ukraine for the period up to 2030. (2018). ↩
Government of Ukraine. On approval of the National Transport Strategy of Ukraine for the period up to 2030. (2018). ↩

What is Ukraine's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Ukraine's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long-term pathway

Ukraine's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

Ukraine's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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