What is Ukraine's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
This analysis was conducted on the basis of Ukraine’s 2021 updated nationally determined contribution and before the brutal and unwarranted Russian military invasion in the country.
Ukraine's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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We are publishing it to show that the Ukrainian government had plans in place to facilitate a transition to a low carbon economy.
Once peace is restored, in addition to very large reconstruction and humanitarian needs, Ukraine will need international support to build a climate-resilient society and economy in line with the Paris Agreement.
Responsible for a little over a tenth of Ukraine’s total GHG emissions (excl. LULUCF), the transport sector has seen emissions rise each year since 2015.1 Emissions would be allowed to rise to 2030 under the 64% reduction target set in its updated NDC, as emissions in 2017 were already 69% below 1990 levels.2 A slight increase to 66% below 1990 levels would place it at the edge of the range of illustrative 1.5°C pathways (66-76%).
Under current policies the share of electric vehicles in the national car fleet would reach just 3% by 2030, compared to the 50% target in Ukraine’s National Transport Strategy.3 Public EV charging points increased by 57% between 2019-20 to reach a total of 8500.4 A target of increasing the use of alternative fuels in transport to 50% by 2030 is also part of the strategy as well as an increase in national access to bus transport to 90% of administrative units.
In general, the strategy is lacking in detail, with many targets not quantified, including the “development of cycling infrastructure”, “allocation of separate lanes for public transport”, and “increase the share of public transport”. Concurrently, the strategy targets a development of domestic air transport, with an aim to make services more affordable. This is counter to achieving a decarbonisation of the transport sector.
Ukraine's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Ukraine
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
27
|
13 to
14
|
6 to
7
|
1 to
4
|
2050 to
2058
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-51 to
-47%
|
-77 to
-73%
|
-95 to
-86%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
6
|
25 to
27
|
55 to
61
|
70 to
71
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
1
|
13 to
14
|
8 to
32
|
7 to
36
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
4 to
9
|
5 to
37
|
24 to
45
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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