What is Ukraine's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Buildings
This analysis was conducted on the basis of Ukraine’s 2021 updated nationally determined contribution and before the brutal and unwarranted Russian military invasion in the country.
Ukraine's energy mix in the buildings sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the buildings sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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We are publishing it to show that the Ukrainian government had plans in place to facilitate a transition to a low carbon economy.
Once peace is restored, in addition to very large reconstruction and humanitarian needs, Ukraine will need international support to build a climate-resilient society and economy in line with the Paris Agreement.
Ukraine’s building stock is relatively energy inefficient, ranging from 250-450 kWh/m2.1 Recent efforts to improve on this have centred on funds and loans to implement upgrades to residential buildings, but the scale of funding is not yet sufficient to achieve the wholesale changes necessary.
Several priority areas have been identified by the Ukrainian government, namely: modernisation of the building stock, replacement of inefficient boilers and other fossil fuel heating systems, and a nationwide building reconstruction effort.2 To ensure Ukraine is aligned with the illustrative 1.5°C pathways, direct building emissions should decline to around one fifth of their 1990 levels by 2030, and reach zero between 2040 and 2050.
Ukraine's buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the buildings sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and hydrogen in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Ukraine
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised buildings sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
21
|
5 to
6
|
1 to
2
|
0 to
1
|
2032 to
2033
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-77 to
-74%
|
-97 to
-90%
|
-99 to
-96%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
26
|
50 to
61
|
55 to
84
|
56 to
93
|
|
Share of heat
per cent
|
18
|
23 to
48
|
32 to
51
|
37 to
53
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
1
|
1 to
1
|
1 to
2
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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