Data references for analysis based on the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C

Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2019. Inventory year: 2017.

Gütschow, Johannes; Jeffery, Louise; Gieseke, Robert; Günther, Annika (2019): The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1850-2017). V. 2.1. GFZ Data Services. doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2019.018

Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

Gütschow, J.; Günther, A.; Pflüger, M. (2021): The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1750-2019). v2.3.1. zenodo. doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5494497

Historical emissions: UNFCCC 2019. Inventory year: 2017.

UNFCCC Secretariat. 2019. “GHG Data from UNFCCC.” UNFCCC. Retrieved ( unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/transparency-and-reporting/greenhouse-gas-data/ghg-data-unfccc/ghg-data-from-unfccc ).

Historical emissions: UNFCCC 2021. Inventory year: 2019.

UNFCCC Secretariat. 2021. “GHG Data from UNFCCC.” UNFCCC. Retrieved ( unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/transparency-and-reporting/greenhouse-gas-data/ghg-data-unfccc/ghg-data-from-unfccc ).

Current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2020 update

Climate Action Tracker. 2020. ( climateactiontracker.org/countries ).

Current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2021 update

Climate Action Tracker. 2021. ( climateactiontracker.org/countries ).

Estimated NDC: Climate Action Tracker 2021 update

Climate Action Tracker. 2021. ( climateactiontracker.org/countries ).

Estimated NDC: Climate Action Tracker 2020 update

Climate Action Tracker. 2020. ( climateactiontracker.org/climate-target-update-tracker ).

Historical emissions: Climate Action Tracker 2020 update

Climate Action Tracker. 2020. ( climateactiontracker.org/countries ).

Current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2022 update

Climate Action Tracker. 2022. ( climateactiontracker.org/countries ).

Estimated NDC: Climate Action Tracker 2022 update

Climate Action Tracker. 2022. ( climateactiontracker.org/climate-target-update-tracker ).

Historical emissions: Climate Action Tracker 2022 update

Climate Action Tracker. 2022. ( climateactiontracker.org/countries ).

NDC and Current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2020 update

Climate Action Tracker. 2020. ( climateactiontracker.org/countries ).

LULUCF emissions: latest available data as reported by the Climate Action Tracker 2020 update.

Latest available data as reported by the Climate Action Tracker (2020 update) ( climateactiontracker.org/climate-target-update-tracker ).

Estimated NDC : Climate Action Tracker 2021 Target Update Tracker

Climate Action Tracker. 2021. “CAT Climate Target Update Tracker | Climate Action Tracker.” Retrieved June 8, 2021 ( climateactiontracker.org/climate-target-update-tracker )

Historical emissions: Climate Action Tracker 2021 update

Climate Action Tracker. 2021. ( climateactiontracker.org/countries ).

Current Policy Projections: No assessment on current policy projections is provided.

No assessment on current policy projections is provided.

Submitted NDC includes only non quantifiable measures not allowing a quantifiable assessment

Submitted NDC includes only non quantifiable measures not allowing a quantifiable assessment.

PRIMAP-Hist 2019. Energy sub-sectors emissions based on the IEA CO2 Fuel 2019. Inventory year: 2017.

Historical emissions from PRIMAP-Hist 2019. Energy sub-sectors emissions based on the IEA CO2 Fuel 2019.

PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Energy sub-sectors emissions based on the IEA GHG Fuel 2021. Inventory year: 2019.

Historical emissions from PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Energy sub-sectors emissions based on the IEA CO2 Fuel 2021.

Sectoral emissions from PRIMAP-Hist 2021 scaled to total GHG emissions of the country

Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2020

Data source for historical energy consumptions

Historical energy emissions : IEA CO2 Fuel 2020

Data source for historical energy emissions

Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

IEA (2021). World Energy Balances (database). iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/world-energy-balances/

Historical energy emissions : IEA GHG emissions from Energy database 2021

IEA (2021). Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy 2021 Edition (database). iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-energy/

Country targets: see data source.

Country targets are derived from country specific data as well as historical emissions as well as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Current Policies Projections (CPPs).

Country targets: see data source.

Country targets are derived from country specific data as well as historical emissions as well as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Current Policies Projections (CPPs).

Country targets: Third Energy Master Plan, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy.

Third Energy Master Plan, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy

Country targets: Ley 27191 (2015). El Senado y Cámara de Diputados de la Nación Argentina.

Ley 27191 (2015) - Régimen de Fomento Nacional para el uso de Fuentes Renovables de Energía destinada a la Producción de Energía Eléctrica. Modificación Ley 26190. El Senado y Cámara de Diputados de la Nación Argentina.

Estimated NDC excl. LULUCF incl. Intra-EU aviation and navigation.

NDC proposal from the European Commission

Current Policy Projections: EEA - Trends and Projections in Europe 2021. WEM Scenario and EU 2020 Reference Scenario.

Source : Higher bound is based on EEA - Trends and Projections in Europe - 2021 report. WEM Scenario. Lower bound is based on the EU 2020 Reference Scenario.

Historical emissions: EEA Greenhouse Gas Data Viewer (2020)

Historical emissions from the EEA Greenhouse Gas Data Viewer (2020)

Estimated NDC: Climate Action Tracker Update Tracker (April 2021) - USA Assessment

Source: Climate Action Tracker Update Tracker (2021) - USA Assessment

Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2019 dataset. Breakdown of combustion emissions are based on the 3rd National Communication of Nigeria (2020).

Based on the PRIMAP-Hist 2019 dataset. Breakdown of combustion emissions are based on the 3rd National Communication of Nigeria (2020).

LULUCF emissions: 3rd National Communication of Nigeria (2020). Latest available datayear is 2016.

Based on the 3rd National Communication of Nigeria (2020). Latest available datayear is 2016.

Historical Emissions: 3rd National Inventory Report, Ministry of Environment, Argentina (INGEI 1990-2016)

Based on the 3rd National Inventory Report, Ministry of Environment, Argentina (INGEI 1990-2016)

LULUCF emissions: No data available.

No data available for the LULUCF emisions

Estimated NDC: see assumptions.

See assumptions in the current situation section on the NDC assessment

Historical carbon intensity and fuel shares are derived from the IEA World Energy Balances 2021 and IEA GHG emissions from Energy 2021 database

Bottom-Up CAT Scaling-Up: bottom-Up analysis from scaling-Up Climate Action in Australia, Climate Action Tracker, 2020.

Bottom-Up analysis from scaling-Up Climate Action in Australia, Climate Action Tracker, 2020.

PAC Scenario: Paris Agreement Sceneario (PAC). CAN Europe 2020.

Source : Paris Agreement Sceneario (PAC). CAN Europe 2020.

3rd National Communication from the Government of Nepal, 2017.

Based on the 3rd National Communication from the Government of Nepal, 2017.

4th National Inventory Report, Government of Ghana, 2020.

Environmental Protection Agency of Ghana. Ghana’ s Fourth National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (2019).

Estimated conditional NDC target: see assumptions and sources.

Estimated 2030 target is based on the Climate Action Tracker assessment. It was not possible to estimate the impact of all of the listed mitigation actions, which means the total reduction under the conditional NDC could potentially be higher than the estimates and high uncertainty remains regarding the NDC assessment.

Historical emissions: 2nd Biennal Update Report, Government of Indonesia, 2018. Inventory year: 2016.

Republic of Indonesia. 2018. Second Biennial Update Report (BUR). Retrieved ( unfccc.int/documents/192165 ).

Historical emissions: 4th Biennal Update Report, Government of Brasil, 2020.

Ministry of Foreing Affairs, and Technology and Innovation Ministry of Science. 2020. Fourth Biennial Update Report of Brazil.

Bangladesh NDC: see assumptions.

In 2021 Bangladesh submitted an updated NDC with an unconditional emissions reduction target of 6.73% (27.53 MtCO₂e/yr) below business as usual (BAU) levels by 2030, and a conditional target of 15% (61.9 MtCO₂e/yr) by 2030 which will lead to an increase in emissions of 126% above 2012 levels (unconditional) and 89% above 2012 levels by 2030 including LULUCF (conditional). The conditional reduction is in addition to the proposed reductions in the unconditional scenario. Compared to Bangladesh’s first NDC which only covered energy related emissions from power, transport and industry sector, the updated NDC covers additional sectors following IPCC guidelines – energy, Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU), agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) and waste. The broader coverage means that Bangladesh will reduce more emissions in absolute terms than what it promised under its first NDC even though the percentage change will remain almost the same. As the updated NDC does not explicitly mention the global warming potential (GWP) used, we use values as they are provided by the NDC. Our analysis is based on the GWP from the 4th Assessment Report (AR4). When excluding LULUCF emissions (forestry emissions in the NDC update), Bangladesh’s unconditional emissions reduction target leads to an increase in emissions in 2030 of 198% above 2012 levels. Under the conditional target, the country would increase its emissions by 150% above 2012 levels in 2030.

The NDC update uses 2012 as the base year following the Bangladesh’s “Third National Communication” of Bangladesh. When the sector wise inventory data is converted using GWP of AR4 there is a discrepancy between emissions from energy and IPPU sector between the NDC update and the 3^rd National Communication.

Ghana NDC: see assumptions.

Ghana submitted an updated NDC in November 2021 which targets to conditionally achieve an absolute emissions reduction of 64 MtCO₂e by 2030, including LULUCF. We assume these reductions are in relation to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario; however, this is not specified in the updated NDC. In Annex 6.1 of the updated NDC, Ghana articulates that a base year of 2019 was used. The NDC lays out 34 mitigation measures to achieve this target, of which nine are unconditional and would lead to absolute emissions reductions of around 24 MtCO₂e below BAU by 2030. As Ghana’s NDC does not provide indications on the assumed BAU by 2030, to quantify Ghana’s NDC, we use the 3rd biennial update report (BUR) published in August 2021. This BUR provides a BAU emissions trajectory reaching around 100 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 including LULUCF (almost double total 2019 emissions) and 83 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF. To determine the emissions level by 2030 under the reductions targeted in the updated NDC, we have subtracted the emissions reductions targeted in the NDC from the projected 2030 emissions under the BAU scenario. Since this assessment also refers to emissions excluding LULUCF, we have removed LULUCF emissions expressed in the BUR, as well as mitigation measures targeting the LULUCF sector from our calculations. These calculations lead to the target of emissions of 42 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 excluding LULUCF, or an increase of 32% above 2015 emissions levels.

Note that there is a deviation between historical data used in this analysis (PRIMAP-Hist 2021) and nationally reported historical data (in 2019, 36 MtCO₂e in this analysis vs. 44 MtCO₂e nationally reported, excluding LULUCF – a 22% difference).

As Ghana excludes agriculture emissions from its NDC target, we have assumed agriculture emissions would remain at the current levels under the BAU scenario in 2030.

All values are reported in global warming potentials (GWP) from the IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report.

Country targets: Ghana 2015 NDC

Republic of Ghana. Ghana’s intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) and accompanying explanatory note. (2015).

Country targets: Egypt's Integrated Sustainable Energy Strategy 2035

Government of Egypt. Egypt's Integrated Sustainable Energy Strategy (ISES) 2035. nrea.gov.eg/test/en/About/Strategy

Senegal NDC: own assessment, see assumptions.

Senegal conditional NDC is 29.5% below BAU by 2030 which translates in 59% emissions reduction above 2010, base year provided in the NDC as reference for the BAU scenario. Baseline year referenced in the NDC for the BAU scenario and subsequent NDC targets are excluding forestry contributions and biomass and total aggregated contribution to the NDC suggested that LULUCF emissions are excluded. We therefore assume that the NDC targets are excluding LULUCF. Historical base year 2010 provided in the NDC differs significantly from the PRIMAP-Hist historical source used in this analysis (around 28%), we there provide a range for the NDC. The upper bound of the NDC is based on an estimated BAU excluding LULUCF scaled to historical dataset excluding LULUCF used in the analysis: PRIMAP-Hist 2019 and in Global Warming Potentials AR4. We apply then the conditional NDC emissions reduction target of -29.5%. The lower bound of the NDC is based on the provided NDC target converted to global warming potentials AR4 using the ratio SAR/AR4 from the PRIMAP-Hist 2019 dataset.

Zimbabwe NDC: own assessment, see assumptions.

Zimbabwe’s NDC provides a target by 2030 in emissions per capita. The updated NDC includes BAU, mitigation reductions, and target emissions in absolute levels which we use for the quantification. To exclude LULUCF, we use the emissions graph on page 20 that depicts the sectoral breakdown of remaining emissions in 2030 under the mitigation scenario. A plot digitiser was used to extract the data. The updated NDC is reported in SAR values (see page 40 of the update). Emissions are converted to AR4 using the ratio of AR4:SAR from PRIMAP-Hist for base year 2017.

See assumptions for Malaysia's estimated NDC

Malaysia has an NDC target to reduce GHG emissions intensity of GDP by 45% by 2030 relative to the emissions intensity of GDP in 2005. The unconditional portion is 35% and the conditional portion is 10%, totalling a 45% emissions reduction by 2030 which we have used for the purpose of this analysis. The NDC target has economy wide coverage, only covers CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O gases. The NDC target includes LULUCF, but for the purpose of comparability, we assessed the NDC target excluding LULUCF emissions. The NDC notes emissions in 2005 were 288 MtCO₂e (incl. LULUCF). The NDC also notes GDP in the base year is RM 543.578 billion (constant price at 2005). GWP AR4 Conversion: The NDC uses SAR global warming potential which is converted to AR4 for comparability.

The latest government source, the Biennial Update Report 3 (BUR3) published in December 2020 provides emissions data in AR4. Emissions in 2005 (excl. LULUCF) in BUR3 were 246 MtCO₂e. Emission intensity for 2005 was calculated (emissions in 2005 / GDP in 2005). We then calculated a reduction of 35% and 45%, to provide the unconditional and conditional emissions intensity for 2030 in AR4 GWP. We then convert the emissions intensity targets to absolute values for 2030 for comparison. We multiplied government GDP projections for 2030 with the emissions intensity for 2030. GDP projections for 2030 were calculated from the NDC 2005 GDP value with growth rates available to 2030 from Biennial Update Report 2 (BUR2). The unconditional target is calculated to be 412 MtCO₂e and the conditional 349 MtCO₂e (excluding LULUCF).

Pakistan NDC: own assessment, see assumptions.

Pakistan’s NDC, including both conditional and unconditional commitments, is 50% below business as usual (BAU) levels by 2030 (including LULUCF). The NDC includes a GHG inventory showing that 2018 emissions stood at 490 MtCO₂e. Pakistan estimates that 2030 emissions under BAU will be 1603 MtCO₂e/yr including LULUCF, or a 227% increase from 2018 levels. Their overall Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) translates to an emissions level of 802 MtCO₂e/yr, including LULUCF, or 64% above 2018 levels. The country’s unconditional target (15%) alone would translate to 2030 emissions levels of 1363 MtCO₂e/yr, including LULUCF (178% above 2018 levels). This may be compared to the previously submitted INDC conditional 20% target which translated to 2030 emissions levels 1282 MtCO₂e/yr including LULUCF (162% above 2018 levels). Pakistan’s baseline emissions projections in their updated NDC appear to be unchanged from that given in the INDC: 1603 MtCO₂e/yr including LULUCF. While the updated NDC only provides the aggregated emissions value, the INDC gives a sectoral breakdown. We assume here that, like the aggregate, the sectoral composition of the baseline emissions has remained the same for the updated NDC. Importantly, we assume that baseline projections for 2030 LULUCF sector are unchanged.

We estimate emissions levels under a BAU that excludes LULUCF to be 1574 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030. Pakistan’s NDC does not specify the Global Warming Potential (GWP) used, however, “an additional study” indicates that it uses GWPs from the IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR). The analysis provided here is based on GWPs from the 4th assessment report (AR4), thus for comparability and consistency purposes, we provide a range in estimating Pakistan’s 2030 unconditional and conditional updated NDC targets.

The lower bound is based on applying a 50% reduction (or 15% and 35% for unconditional and conditional targets respectively) to the stated 2030 BAU level excluding LULUCF, leading to emissions levels of 787 MtCO₂e/yr (or 1338 and 1023 MtCO₂e/yr for unconditional and conditional targets respectively) excluding LULUCF, by 2030. The NDC states that 2018 LULUCF emissions were 24.86 MtCO₂e. Thus, total emissions excluding LULUCF in 2018 were 465 MtCO₂e. Thus, in relative terms, the NDC reduction targets, excluding LULUCF, would be 69% increase over 2018 levels overall, and 188% and 120% increases from 2018 level for unconditional and conditional targets respectively.

For the higher bound, we converted the 2030 baseline projection, excluding LULUCF, by scaling according to the ratio between SAR and AR4 historical emissions as provided in the PRIMAP-Hist dataset. This conversion factor is consistently around 0.94 SAR/AR4 in the years covered by the PRIMAP dataset. We thus arrive at a 2030 overall NDC target emissions level of 838 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF (or 1425 and 1089 MtCO₂e/yr for unconditional and conditional targets respectively). Using AR4 GWP, 2018 emissions levels, excluding LULUCF were 513 MtCO₂e. Thus, in relative terms, the NDC target, excluding LULUCF, would constitute a 63% increase over 2018 levels (178% and 112% for unconditional and conditional targets respectively)

Country targets: UAE's Energy Strategy 2050

Energy Strategy 2050: President of Masdar: the strategy of the UAE leads to a sustainable use of energy resources. wam.ae/ar/details/1395302596654

Country targets: Russia 2014 Programme on Energy Efficiency and Energy Development)

Climate Action Tracker 2019 Assessnent on Russia. climateactiontracker.org/countries/russian-federation . IFC Advisory Services. (2013). Russia Renewable Energy Program Russia’s New Capacity-based Renewable Energy Support Scheme. Retrieved from "www.ifc.org/eca":www.ifc.org/eca

Country targets: UK Climate Change Act 2008. Order 2019.

UK Government. The Climate Change Act 2008 (2050 Target Amendment) Order 2019. (2019).

Country targets: 11th Development Plan (2019-2023).

Government of Turkey. On bi̇ri̇nci̇ kalkinma plani (2019-2023) (11th Development Plan (2019-2023). (2019).

Country targets: Poland 2040 energy plan (2021)

Polish Government. Polityka energetyczna Polski do 2040 r. (2021).

Country targets: Biden Climate Plan 2020

The Biden plan to build a modern, sustainable infrastructure and an equitable clean energy future. https://joebiden.com/clean-energy/ (2020)

Country targets: Plan Sénégal Emergent (PSE). Plan d'actions Prioritaires (2019-2023)

Ministère de l’Économie des Finances et du Plan. Plan Sénégal Émergent (PSE) Plan d’Actions Prioritaires (2019-2023). https://www.economie.gouv.sn/en/dossiers-publications/publications/pse (2018).

Country targets: Nigeria 30-30-30 Vision

Federal Ministry of Power. About this platform. Nigeria SE4ALL https://nigeriase4all.gov.ng/about#about-se4all .

Country targets: Costa Rica NDC (2020) and National decarbonisation plan (2019)

Gobierno de Costa Rica. Contribución Nacionalmente Determinada. (2020). Government of Costa Rica. National Decarbonization Plan. (2019).

Country targets: Chile 2050 energy policy (2015)

Ministerio de Energía. Energía 2050: Política Energética de Chile. http://www.minenergia.cl/archivos_bajar/LIBRO-ENERGIA-2050-WEB.pdf (2015).

Country targets: Energy strategies for New Zealand (2021)

Ministry of Business Innovation & Employment. Energy strategies for New Zealand. New Zealand Governmenthttps://www.mbie.govt.nz/building-and-energy/energy-and-natural-resources/energy-strategies-for-new-zealand/ (2021).

Country targets: Alternative and Renewable Energy Policy 2019

The Government of Pakistan. Alternative and Renewable Energy Policy 2019.

Country targets: Draft Power System Master Plan (PSMP)

Bangladesh Draft Power System Master Plan (PSMP) 2021. dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/power-energy/2021/06/02/state-minister-40-of-bangladesh-s-power-will-come-from-renewables-by-2041

Country targets: Japan’s Nationally Determined Contribution. (2020).

The Government of Japan. Submission of Japan’s Nationally Determined Contribution. (2020). www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/Pages/Party.aspx

NDC (domestic and announced) target based on the Climate Action Tracker assessment.

See Climate Action Tracker assessment for underlying assumptions. No details are provided on the level of LULUCF sinks and international credits on which the country intend to account for to meet its target. The Climate Action Tracker assume the level of LULUCF sinks and international credits to remain the same as in South Korea's 2030 Roadmap.

Country targets: Government of Canada, 2018.

Government of Canada. Canada’s coal power phase-out reaches another milestone. (2018). canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2018/12/canadas-coal-power-phase-out-reaches-another-milestone.html

Country targets: Deutscher Bundestag 2020, Deutscher Bundestag 2021.

Deutscher Bundestag. Kohleausstiegsgesetz. 2020, 202 (2020). Deutscher Bundestag. Gesetz für den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien (ErneuerbareEnergien-Gesetz - EEG 2021). (2021).

Republic of Botswana: First Biennal Update Report 2019

Republic of Botswana: First Biennal Update Report (2019). unfccc.int/documents/201214

Ecuador NDC: see assumptions.

Ecuador’s conditional Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) aims to reduce emissions by 20.9% below business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and unconditional target by 9% below BAU by 2025. This is equivalent with 5% emissions increase above 2015 for the unconditional NDC target and 9% below 2015 levels for the conditional NDC target. Ecuador’s NDC provides data for 2010, 2020, 2025. A linear interpolation has been used between datapoints to obtain the full BAU projections. Values are provided in GWP SAR which have been converted to GWP AR4. We applied the respective unconditional and conditional reductions to BAU by 2025 to obtain targeted 2030 emissions levels.

Botwana's NDC has not been quantified. See more details here.

Botswana’s first NDC (released in 2016) covers CO2, CH4 and N2O and targets 15% emissions reductions below 2010 levels. The NDC covers Energy, Waste and Agriculture but exclude enteric fermentation which accounted 15% in 2015 and does not mention industry which accounted for around 14% in 2015. Botswana third national communication does not refer to its previously published NDC and indicates a 12% reduction below BAU. Due to lack of information and data provided for the NDC, we were unable to quantify Botswana’s NDC.

UNFCCC, 2021. Common Report Format. Inventory year: 2019.

Government of Romania 2021. Common Reporting Format (CRF) Table. Reporting year: 2019. UNFCCC Dataviewer, 2021.

NDC Submitted on September 2021. Assessment by the Climate Action Tracker 2021.

Climate Action Tracker 2021. South Africa's Presidential climate commission recommends stronger mitigation target range for updated NDC: close to 1.5°C compatible. Retrieved from Climate Action Tracker 2021 assessment . Note: The Climate Action Tracker has assessed South Africa’s 2030 NDC target as recommended by the South African Presidential Climate Commission in June 2021. In late September 2021, the Government submitted its official updated NDC based on the PCC recommendations. See the Climate Action Tracker assessment for assumptions on LULUCF emissions.

40% RE generation target : Loi de transition énergétique pour la croissance verte (LTECV)

Ministère de la Transition écologique. Loi de transition énergétique pour la croissance verte | Ministère de la Transition écologique. ecologie.gouv.fr/loi-transition-energetique-croissance-verte (2015).

National Target: Low Carbon National Strategy (2020)

Ministère de la Transition écologique et solidaire. La transition écologique et solidaire vers la neutralité carbone. "https://www.ecologique-solidaire.gouv.fr/sites/default/files/2020-03-25_MTES_SNBC2.pdf" (2020)

The Government of Japan (2020). Japan’s Nationally Determined Contribution.

The Government of Japan (2020). Submission of Japan’s Nationally Determined Contribution. www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/pages/Party.aspx (2020)

Viet Nam's thrids Natioanal Communication (2019). Inventory year: 2014.

MNRE. National Communication of Vietnam, The Third. "www.bando.com.vn":https://www.bando.com.vn (2019)

Country Targets: Viet Nam Government. Approval of the Revised National Power Development Master Plan for the 2011-2020 Period with the Vision to 2030 (2016)

Viet Nam Government. Approval of the Revised National Power Development Master Plan for the 2011-2020 Period with the Vision to 2030 (translated by GIZ) (2016). policy.asiapacificenergy.org/sites/default/files/PDP 7 revised Decision 428-QD-TTg dated 18 March 2016-ENG.pdf

2030 target: See assumptions for Italy's estimated 2030 target. Source : NECP

Italy’s Plan for the Ecological Transition adopted in March 2022 indicates an aspirational emissions reduction target by 2030 of 256 MtCO₂e equivalent to an emissions reduction of 51% below the 1990 level. However, Italy has so far not formally adopted any 2030 economy-wide emissions reduction targets at the national level. In order to estimate what Italy’s emissions targets currently are, based on the EU emissions reduction framework, we use Italy’s integrated national energy and climate plan (NECP, 2019) which provides emissions targets for those emissions covered by the EU emissions trading system (ETS) and effort sharing regulation (ESR, or non-ETS) of 43% below 2005 levels and 33% below 2005 levels by 2030, respectively, bearing in mind that -43% is an EU wide average target under this scheme. For simplicity, if we directly apply these targets to historical ETS / ESR emissions in 2005, as provided by the European Environment Agency (EEA), this leads to an estimated current target of 37% emissions reduction by 2030 below 2005 levels excluding LULUCF and a 30% emissions reduction by 2030 below 1990 levels. These emissions reduction targets are then applied to the historical data submitted by Italy (as an EU member state) to the EEA and the UNFCCC used in the analysis. The most recent and updated available data is published in The 2021 Economic and Finance Document of the Finance Ministry, which shows an updated projection of NECP scenarios for the total emissions level expected to be reached by 2030 of 303 MtCO₂e. This is equivalent to a 49% emissions reduction below 2005 levels by 2030 and 42% emissions reduction below 1990 levels by 2030. EU member states provide emissions projections to the EEA based on two scenarios: with existing measures scenario (WEM) and the with additional measures scenario (WAM). To estimate the current emissions trajectory of Italy under Current Policies, we use the WEM as the upper bound (lower ambition level) and the WAM as the lower bound of emissions projections.

Current Policy Projections: EEA - Trends and Projections in Europe 2021. WEM Scenario.

Source : EEA - Trends and Projections in Europe - 2021 report. WEM Scenario for higher and lower bound. eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/greenhouse-gas-emission-projections-for-8

Historical emissions: EEA Greenhouse Gas Data Viewer (2021)

Historical emissions from the EEA Greenhouse Gas Data Viewer (2021). eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/data-viewers/greenhouse-gases-viewer

Country targets: Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) - 20019

Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) - 20019. ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/default/files/documents/it_final_necp_main_en.pdf

2030 target: Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) 2021-2030, Government of Spain (2020).

Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) 2021-2030, Government of Spain (2020). https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/
es_final_necp_main_en.pdf

Conditional NDC: DRC's revised NDC (2021). Contribution Déterminée à l’échelle Nationale révisée, Ministère de l’Environnement et Développement Durable, République Démocratique du Congo, October 2021.

The DRC‘s NDC has been updated in December 2021. GWPs are not specified thus data used for the quantification is taken from the NDC as provided, we do not make assumptions on the GWPs used. Conditional target is based on the NDC target of 21% emissions reduction below BAU by 2030, including 19% conditional on top of 2% emissions reduction unconditional. Conditional target is based on figures 2 and 3 from the DRC‘s NDC providing total emissions after reductions. Data has been extracted graphically from the NDC using a dedicated software. LULUCF emission, provided in the NDC, have been excluded given that we assess total GHG excluding LULUCF. Historical emissions used are provided in the NDC.

Historical emissions used are provided in the updated NDC from October 2021. GWPs are not specified thus data used for the quantifiation is taken from the NDC as provided, we do not make assumptions on the GWPs used.

Contribution Déterminée à l’échelle Nationale révisée, Ministère de l’Environnement et Développement Durable, République Démocratique du Congo, October 2021.

Conditional NDC: Own assessment based on Angola's updated NDC (2021). Government of Angola (2021).

Angola's Updated 2021 NDC, IEA CO2 2019 for combustion sectors and PRIMAP 2019 for gases breakdown. Total and sectoral emissions are based on Angola’s updated NDC from 2021, Combustion sectors are based on IEA CO2 2019 database and Breakdown per gas is based on PRIMAP 2019 database.

Angola's Updated 2021 NDC, IEA CO2 2019 for combustion sectors and PRIMAP 2019 for gases breakdown

Total and sectoral emissions are based on Angola's updated NDC from 2021, Combustion sectors are based on IEA CO2 2019 database and Breakdown per gas is based on PRIMAP 2019 database.

Namibia NDC: see assumptions.

NDC updated in July 2021. GWPs not specified, we assume to be SAR because historical emissions are consistent with NC4 (March 2020), expressed in SAR. Based on NC4 inventory data, historical emissions provided are GROSS emissions (including LULUCF sources but not sinks- i.e., sources from biomass burning, grasslands and settlements). BAU also assumed to be provided in gross emissions, as NC4 net BAU is estimated to be an 87 MtCO₂e sink. However, most of emissions reductions are planned on using LULUCF sinks (essentially tree planting for AFOLU). Further, total reductions from AFOLU (~19) are greater than estimated AFOLU emissions in BAU (~17). To estimate BAU excluding LULUCF source, we apply NC4 BAU sector shares to NDC BAU. To disaggregate AFOLU, agriculture was estimated using BAU parameters listed in NC4 (pg. 200) with sub-sector emissions. Converted to AR4 using 2015 sector gas ratios (except for Agriculture, which used the estimated BAU gas shares). For converting reductions, percentages were applied to AR4 values.

Source: 4th National Communication, 2018. Inventory year of 2015. Note that the 4th National Communication reports a high level of removals signifanctly diverging from other historical sources such as the FAO.

Source: 4th National Communication, 2018 Inventory year of 2015. Note that the 4th National Communication reports a high level of removals signifanctly diverging from other historical sources such as the FAO.

Mozambique NDC: see assumptions.

Mozambique updated NDC values are reported in AR5. Emissions target for 2025 was converted to AR4 assuming the gas share for CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O to be constant from 2019, as reported by PRIMAP 2021. While Mozambique indicates REDD+ is a key means of implementation for mitigation ambitions, LULUCF is assumed to be excluded from annual reductions based on their exclusion from the BAU and Mozambique’s stated decision not to include afforestation removals and emissions. As Mozambique only provides a numerical value for cumulative emission reductions for 2020-2025, annual emission reductions for 2025 are taken as provided in Figure 2 using plot digitisation software. Note that annual reductions illustrated in Figure 2 from the NDC document do not add up to the stated cumulative emissions for 2020-2025 (40 MtCO₂e).

Non-LULUCF emissions are from PRIMAP-2021 and energy combustion emissions from IEA CO2 Fuel 2021. LULUCF emissions are provided by the 2021 NDC from Mozambique

Tanzania NDC: own assessment, see assumptions.

Tanzania targets an emissions reduction of 30-35% below BAU by 2030, whereby 138-153 MtCO₂e gross emissions is expected to be reduced (including LULUCF). This would correspond to 0-7% below 2014 levels. We assume the absolute emission reductions and % reductions listed in the target formulation are including LULUCF. The NDC includes different contradictory levels of BAU by 2030, we assume the BAU is as given in Figure 1. Tanzania’s updated NDC and original NDC do not provide information on what Global Warming Potential (GWPs) are used. Further, the source provided for the BAU estimate, “Tanzania GHGs Inventory Report and MRV System”, is not available online. We assume AR4 GWPs are used as the historical value for 2014 is less than 1 MtCO₂e different from PRIMAP‘s AR4 estimate for 2014.

As reductions from LULUCF are not available, we use a range of assumptions to exclude LULUCF from the target value. For the upper bound, we assume LULUCF is reduced proportional to the other sectors (i.e., 30% and 35%) and for the lower bound, we assume no reductions from LULUCF. While this is unlikely as the updated NDC indicates Tanzania intends to use some forestry measures to meet their target, this gives the most conservative estimate.

NDC: own assessment based on Cameroon's 2021 NDC Update. See assumptions.

Cameroon updated its NDC in November 2021. While the target appears to be strengthened from its previous target (32% emissions reduction below BAU vs. 35% emissions reductions below BAU by 2030 in the updated target), the estimated level of emissions reached in 2030 is higher in the updated NDC mostly due to a revised BAU. This would lead to an increase in emissions of 120% above 2010 levels and an emissions level of 77 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030. The target covers an unconditional component (-12% below BAU) and a conditional component of -23% below BAU by 2030.

While Cameroon BAU‘s is provided excluding LULUCF, emissions reductions to achieve the target include the LULUCF sector (around 46% of the total mitigation potential identified to achieve the target). We have then excluded this mitigation potential from the target as we do the assessment excluding LULUCF and to be consistent with the BAU which is excluding LULUCF. Cameroon’s NDC target is expressed in Global Warming Potentials from the 4^th Assessment report.

Finally, while it appears that there is unclarity in the NDC on how the LULUCF sector is taken in account (BAU excluding LULUCF but an emissions reduction target including LULUCF), the country makes up around 12% of the Congo Basin, the second largest forest ecosystem after the Amazon. Its tree cover ranges between 43% (FAO) of its total land area to 68% (Global Forest Watch), and the country has seen a sharp increase in deforestation since 2011 with a continuing trend leading to an annual level of positive emissions from the LULUCF sector of around 34 MtCO₂e/yr. This is thus a key sector for the country.

Historical: Total emissions per sector from DRC 2021 NDC. Sub-sector and gas split based on PRIMAP-Hist 2019 and IEA CO2 Fuel 2019.

Historical emissions: Total emissions per sector from DRC 2021 NDC . Sub-sector and gas split based on PRIMAP-Hist 2019 and IEA CO2 Fuel 2019.

3rd Biennal Update Report (2022). Inventory year: 2018.

Kingdom of Morocco. (2022). Third Biennial Update Report of Morocco

NDC: own assessment based on Myanmar's 2021 NDC. See assumptions here.

Myanmar’s NDC targets are expressed as a cumulative reduction from a BAU scenario over the period 2021-2030, translating to a unconditional emissions reduction target of 244 MtCO₂e, and a conditional reduction target of 415 MtCO₂e, including LULUCF. If LULUCF reductions were removed, the cumulative reductions would be 121 MtCO₂e or 22% above 2015 levels (unconditional) and 158 MtCO₂e or 13% above 2015 levels (conditional) against a BAU which would lead to emissions increase 58% above 2015 levels. The NDC does not provide clarity on the global warming potentials used, we then assume these to be done following the 4th assessment report (AR4 GWP). In order to quantify Myanmar’s NDC and compare it with the 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways, we calculate the required cumulative emissions reductions over the period 2021-2030 with the following assumptions:

We use a simple linear function to interpolate between 1.5°C compatible emissions levels given for years 2020, 2025, and 2030 for the 50th, 25th, and 5th quartiles.
We use a linear forecast function to extrapolate from historical data to calculate baseline emissions between 2020-2030.
We regress sectoral emissions (energy, industrial processes, agriculture, waste, and other) on GDP per capita.
We assume a 7% GDP growth starting in 2016 and out to 2030. This is in line with the 7.1% GDP growth rate assumed under the “medium” scenario of Myanmar’s 2015 Energy Master Plan. An average GDP growth of 6.54% was observed in 2015-2019 before effects from COVID caused a downturn.
World Bank estimates are used for population forecast out to 2030.
We apply the historical regression coefficient to the projected per capita GDP to calculate annual sectoral baseline emissions in 2021-2030. These are then summed to arrive at annual totals.
Annual total emissions (excluding LULUCF) for Myanmar’s conditional and unconditional NDC scenarios are assumed to follow the same trajectory as the emissions from power generation trajectories given for these scenarios (Tables 5 and 7 in the NDC). For the unconditional NDC scenario, 4% of the total expected reduction of 121 MtCO₂e from BAU are taken to occur in 2021, growing to 18% by 2030. A similar trajectory is assumed for the conditional NDC scenario.
We calculate the difference between baseline emissions (as derived in previous step) and the other scenarios (three 1.5°C and two NDC scenarios).
The 1.5°C compatible cumulative reductions below BAU amount to 292-385 MtCO₂e (28-37% below 2015 levels) over the period 2021-2030 (in AR4 GWP). These are compared with those given in the NDC for non-LULUCF emissions.

LULUCF emissions: Myanmar's NDC (2021). Inventory year 2015. Non-LULUCF emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Energy sub-sectors emissions based on the IEA GHG Fuel 2021. Inventory year: 2019.

Myanmar historical emissions provided in its NDC (inventory year 2015) do not provide a sufficient breakdown to analyse sub-sectors emissions. Thus we have used here PRIMAP-Hist for non-LULUCF emissions combined with the IEA GHG Fuel 2021 dataset for the combustion related emissions. LULUCF emissions are provided by Myanmar's NDC reporting inventory year 2015 - although the year differs this provide an indication on the highest emitting sector of the country.

2030 target based on Romania's NECP (2019). See assumptions here.

The NECP (2019) provides ETS and ESR (non-ETS) emissions targets of respectively 43.9% below 2005 levels and 2% below 2005 levels by 2030. Romania estimates in its NECP a level of emissions reductions of around 50% below 1990 levels by 2030 including LULUCF. We apply this estimated target to historical emissions from 1990 including LULUCF provided by Romania to the UNFCCC and the EEA in 2021, and exclude LULUCF in 2030 based on the “With Existing Measures” LULUCF projections, which leads to an emissions reduction of 37% below 1990 levels excluding LULUCF, or 7% above 2005 levels. It is important to note that under the proposal of the Fit for 55 Package, the respective ESR and ETS targets are being revised (to -12.7% by 2030 below 2005 levels) as is the scope of the ESR and ETS sectors. The overall emissions reductions target for Romania is therefore subject to change after approval of the Fit for 55 Package. Current policy projections are taken from the “With Existing Measures” Scenario (WEM) for the upper bound and the “With additional measures” Scenario provided by Romania to the EEA and the UNFCCC.

2030 target based on Czechia's NECP (2019). See assumptions here.

In its national energy and climate plan (NECP 2019) Czechia outlines a 2030 emissions reductions target of 30% below 2005 levels by 2030. The quantification of this target is a 44 MtCO₂e reduction below 2005, which when subtracted from total GHGs emissions excluding LULUCF in 2005, works out to be a 30% reduction. We therefore assume Czechia’s target is excluding LULUCF and equates to 2030 emissions of 105 MtCO₂e. Current policies projections are taken from the “With Existing Measures” Scenario (WEM) for the upper bound and the “With additional measures” scenario provided by Czechia to the EEA and the UNFCCC.

1st Biennial Update Report (2020). Inventory year: 2017.

Ministry of Environment, Climate, Tourism and Hospitality Industry. (2020). Zimbabwe's First Biennial Update Report 2020

LULUCF emissions: Second Nationally Determined Contribution of The Gambia (2021).

Estimate of The Gambia's LULUCF emissions for 2017 based on estimate from the Mitigation Scenario presetned in The Gambia's Second Nationally Determined Contribution (2021)

Historical emissions: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2022). Emissions pathway: IMAGE (2021).

Historical emissions: Environment and Climate Change Canada. National Inventory Report 1990-2020: Greenhouse gas sources and sinks in Canada. 2022. Pathway: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. IMAGE. Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment

Historical emissions: United States Environmental Protection Agency (2022). Emissions pathway: IMAGE (2021).

Historical emissions: United States Environmental Protection Agency. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Data Explorer. 2022. Pathway: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. IMAGE. Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment

Historical emissions: European Environmental Agency (2021). Emissions pathway: IMAGE (2021).

Historical emissions: European Environmental Agency. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry. 2021. Pathway: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. IMAGE. Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment

Historical emissions: Sistema de Estimativas de Emissoes e Remocoes de gases de efeito Estufa SEEG (2022). Emissions pathway: IMAGE (2021).

Historical emissions: Sistema de Estimativas de Emissoes e Remocoes de gases de efeito Estufa SEEG. Emissions by sector. Mudanca de Uso da Terra e Florestas. 2022. Pathway: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. IMAGE. Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment

Data discrepancies

1.5°C pathways were produced using older historic emissions data, creating the discrepancy between historic emissions and 1.5°C pathways for the year 2017 visible on the graph. The pathways will be updated at a later date to reflect revisions to historic emissions.

PRIMAP-Hist 2019. Energy sub-sectors emissions based on the IEA CO2 Fuel 2019. Inventory year: 2014. LULUCF Emissions from the Climate Action Tracker 2020.

WEO2021 stated policies: IEA World Energy Outlook Stated Policies Scenario

Historical 2019 data from Platts World Electric Power Plants Database and Global Energy Monitor's Global Coal Plant Tracker and Global Gas Plant Tracker policies scenario: IEA World Energy Outlook 2021 Stated Policies Scenario

Data for LULUCF emissions is not available.

Australia NDC quantification: see assumptions.

We have derived the excl. LULUCF target from 2005 emissions level in the government’s Paris Agreement inventory and 2030 LULUCF projections in the Government projections published in 2022 of -33 MtCO₂e. Both these sources use global warming potentials (GWP) from the IPCC‘s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). As the 1.5ºC national pathway explorer uses GWPs from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), we have converted the government’s emissions data to AR4 using an average conversion factor of 0.98 (AR4=0.98*AR5). For reference, the AR5 GWP weighted 2030 emissions based on for reference, the AR5 GWP numbers based on the most recent inventory the most recent inventory is 388 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF in 2030.

Israel NDC: see assumptions.

In its 2021 updated NDC, Israel commits to reduce emissions 27% by 2030 and 85% by 2050 relative to 2015 levels, including LULUCF, equivalent to emission levels of 58 MtCO₂e in 2030 and 12 MtCO₂e in 2050. The 2015 reference emissions and target emissions are provided in SAR. For comparability with our analysed 1.5°C pathways, we convert the given 2015 reference emissions level to AR4 using greenhouse gas emissions shares provided in Israel’s Third National Communication. LULUCF emissions are considered negligible (<1%). Historical emissions were derived by harmonising PRIMAP data to the 2015 reference emissions provided in the 2021 updated NDC.

Qatar NDC: own assessment, see assumptions.

Qatar updated its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in August 2021. While the updated NDC is an improvement compared to the previous one, as it includes an emissions reduction target, the government provides no information on the “business as usual” (BAU) scenario used as a reference for the target. The government aims to reduce emissions by 25% below BAU by 2030 covering the sectors of energy, including transport and downstream industries, buildings and construction industry, water management, waste and infrastructure. We have assumed a BAU range based on (1) the ten-year trend of emissions from 2009–2019 based on PRIMAP data for the upper range and (2) a downscaled RCP4.5 SSP2 pathway from Gütschow et. al, 2020. As it is unclear whether the target covers industrial process emissions, we have produced a target range of emissions in 2030 including and excluding industrial process emissions. We assume the target does not cover agriculture and “other emissions” in the upper range. However, as these emissions represented less than 1% of the total emissions in 2019, and sectoral data is not available for the lower BAU range, they are considered negligible and not excluded.

Algeria NDC: see assumptions

Algeria’s 2015 INDC sets a conditional target of 22% emissions reductions below Business-As-Usual (BAU). The BAU scenario is however not provided throughout the NDC. In order to quantify Algeria’s targeted emissions level by 2030, we estimated two different BAU scenarios: one based on the last 10 years’ emissions growth rates from the country, and one based on the RCP4.5 SSP2. We then apply the respective conditional and unconditional targets by assuming two scenarios of emissions reductions in the LULUCF sector: assuming equal emissions reduction efforts across the different sectors, including LULUCF, and assuming a third of the efforts applied to the LULUCF sector. For the latter, the NDC specifies three categories of actions: energy, waste and forestry; so, we assume 1/3 of effort goes to forestry. We take in both cases the maximum and minimum levels of the combined scenarios as the range. This leads us to emissions levels targeted by the country by 2030 of 244-315 MtCO₂e for the conditional NDC and 291-351 MtCO₂e for the unconditional NDC excluding LULUCF or 3% below 2015 levels to 25% above 2015 levels and 16-39% above 2015 levels by 2030, respectively.

Serbia NDC: own assessment, see assumptions.

Serbia’s updated NDC targets a 13.2% emissions reduction by 2030 compared to 2010 levels. Although the NDC is described as an ‘economy-wide’ target, sectors covered listed exclude the LULUCF sector. The Draft Low Carbon Development Strategy with Action plan 2019 from Serbia provides more details on the mitigation scenario leading to the 13.2% emissions reduction target by 2030 below 2010, which exclude LULUCF emissions. We therefore assumed that the NDC target is excluding LULUCF. Third National Communication and Second Biennial Update Report, based upon which the NDC emissions reductions have been calculated, are as of yet unavailable to the public, as confirmed in exchange with the Serbian Environmental Protection Agency. To quantify 2030 emissions targeted in the NDC, we used emissions data from Draft Climate Strategy and Action Plan, which have been provided by the Serbian Environmental Protection Agency, the same agency providing emissions figures for the National Communications and Biennial Update Reports. We applied to these estimates the 13.2% reduction to the 2010 base year. We then add back the projected LULUCF emissions by 2030 to estimate the absolute emissions level including LULUCF. Historical data provided by the Draft Climate Strategy and Action Plan are up to 2015, with data years provided of 2005 and 2010. We interpolate in between based on PRIMAP 2022 dataset growth rate, and extrapolate post-2015 based on the same dataset.

See data sources

PRIMAP-Hist 2021. LULUCF emissions from DCSP 2019, year of 2015. Combustion emissions from IEA-GHG 2021.

Jamaica NDC: see assumptions.

Historical reported emissions for the agriculture sector are deviating significantly from the PRIMAP-Hist – Country reported 2021 dataset to other third party reported GHG – such as the CAIT Climate Watch dataset used in recent studies to inform the development of Jamaica’s Long-Term Strategy. On the total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF in 2017 for example, the difference is of around 60%. In order to assess Jamaica’s NDC and remain consistent with historical data used in the analysis to assess the 1.5°C compatible benchmarks we have used the Primap-Hist Country Reported dataset (2021 version) leading to emissions level of around 14.0 MtCO₂e by 2030 (excluding LULUCF). For comparison, using the Climate Watch dataset, 2030 emissions levels would reach 8.3 MtCO₂e by 2030, excluding LULUCF.

As Jamaica’s updated NDC covers only the energy sector and the LULUCF sector, we have assumed an emissions growth for the IPPU and Waste sectors following the last 10 years trend, and for the agriculture sector that the share of emissions in 2030 remains the same as the current share over total GHG emissions.

Source: PRIMAP-Hist (2021). Note: There are discrepancies between historical emissions reported through different sources, see more details here.

NDC and Current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2023 update

Climate Action Tracker. 2023. ( climateactiontracker.org/countries ).

Historical emissions: Climate Action Tracker 2023 update

Climate Action Tracker. 2023. ( climateactiontracker.org/countries ).