What is Egypt's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Egypt
Egypt’s conditional NDC target can be strengthened to align with 1.5°C
Egypt’s conditional NDC target would lead to a 57-61% emissions increase above 2015 levels by 2030. That is not yet 1.5°C compatible. To align with 1.5°C, Egypt’s 2030 emissions would be 1% above to 30% below 2015 levels. Egypt can strengthen its NDC’s ambition by aligning its conditional target with 1.5°C.
Egypt's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Egypt’s vast renewables potential can be harnessed to achieve 1.5°C
Egypt has huge and as of yet mainly untapped potential to expand its use of renewable energy. Sharply increased use of renewables is needed to align with 1.5°C. Across all 1.5°C compatible pathways, renewables reach 85-94% of the power mix by 2030, from 12% in 2021.
Shifting away from fossil gas towards renewables reduces the risk of stranding assets
Fossil gas made up 81% of Egypt’s electricity mix in 2021. Across all assessed 1.5°C compatible pathways, the share of gas would fall to under 1% by 2035. Considering Egypt’s ambition to serve as a regional green hydrogen hub, Egypt could benefit from an expansion of renewables in its power sector.