What is Egypt's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Egypt's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023.
Methodology
Data References
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While Egypt’s target to generate 42% of electricity from renewables is a notable increase from current levels, 1.5°C compatible pathways show a more rapid transition of the power sector. The Minimal CDR Reliance pathway, which combines a renewables rollout with reduced energy demand, sees renewables make up 85% of Egypt’s electricity generation by 2030. This high share is likely as a result of meeting increased energy demand along as end-use sectors are electrified. This would be combined with a fossil fuel phase out. Fossil gas would fall to 14% of the mix by 2030 and be effectively phased out by 2035.
1.5°C pathways show an even further contrast with Egypt’s 2040 electricity targets. Although Egypt aims for a 40% share in 2040 (lower than its proposed 2030 share),3 all assessed 1.5°C pathways show the power sector being almost completely decarbonised by 2040.
Efforts to ratchet up renewables would be complemented by energy efficiency measures to take pressure off the grid even as Egypt’s economy grows. Under the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway, energy demand increases by 18% between 2022 and 2030, despite significant socioeconomic development which is accounted for in the model.
Impetus to expand the share of renewables has grown in the face of rolling blackouts in 2024, and Egypt has had to spend significantly more money on importing fossil fuels to meet an unexpected surge in energy demand.4 However, fossil fuel extraction remains embedded in energy planning and risks derailing efforts to align with 1.5°C, especially as 2040 renewables targets have been revised down in favour of increased use of fossil gas.5 By following pathways which commit to renewables and energy efficiency measures that ensure reliable electricity supply, Egypt could safeguard its economy from spikes in energy demand.
Egypt's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Power capacity investments
Egypt’s vast wind and solar potential gives it an advantage in rolling out a 1.5°C compatible power grid. Egypt has some of the highest solar irradiance in the world and significant wind supply near the Sinai Peninsula and the Gulf of Suez. Both wind and solar projects have well-established economic feasibility.6
In 1.5°C compatible pathways, the scale at which renewables are rolled out in the power sector is determined by the extent of energy efficiency measures and how much end-use sectors are electrified. The Deep Electrification pathway is influenced heavily by the rapid electrification of end-use sectors, particularly the transport sector. Achieving this would involve average annual investments of USD 14.2 bn between 2026-2030, with the vast majority of this directed towards wind and solar. Almost two-thirds of total investments would be directed towards wind, though installed solar capacity in 2030 would be higher than that of wind – this is the result of low solar costs. As costs continue to tumble and fossil fuels are displaced from the system, investments in new renewable capacity would fall to USD 8.8 bn/yr between 2031-2040.
On the other hand, the Net Zero commitments pathway has the lowest investment requirements for renewables of the three pathway. This is largely due to lower electricity demand as end-use sectors see more constrained energy demand overall, alongside slightly higher use of bioenergy and hydrogen to displace fossil fuels. Average annual investments in renewables would amount to USD 9.5 bn between 2026-2030, leading to 65 GW of installed capacity by 2030. By 2040, solar capacity rises to 83 GW while wind capacity grows to 40 GW, supported by investments of USD 3.2 bn/yr.
Grid upgrades and energy storage would require additional investments to those considered in this analysis. Egypt has already begun investing in upgrading transmission and distribution infrastructure, modernising the grid with smart technologies, and increasing storage capacity.7, 8, 9, 10 Rolling out renewables at a rate in line with 1.5°C would need to be accompanied by a significant enhancement of Egypt’s existing grid infrastructure improvements.
Egypt's renewable electricity investments and capacities
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Average annual investments in power sector renewable electricity capacity and cumulative installed power capacities across time under 1.5°C compatible pathways downscaled at country levels.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Egypt
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Power sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
404
|
26 to
66
|
1 to
5
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
2035 to
2036
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-94 to
-84%
|
-100 to
-99%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
%
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of unabated gas
%
|
79
|
5 to
14
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of renewable energy
%
|
12
|
85 to
94
|
98 to
100
|
99 to
100
|
99 to
100
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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