What is Egypt's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
Raising ambition
Egypt’s 2023 NDC has no economy-wide emissions reduction target. Instead, it contains sectoral targets for the electricity, transport, and oil and gas sectors, conditional on international support.1 When these sectoral targets are combined, Egypt’s NDC would lead to emissions of 53-58% above 2015 levels.2
1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that Egypt’s emissions would be 2% above 2015 levels by 2030, and 14% below 2015 levels by 2035 (including LULUCF).
As Egypt’s LULUCF sector is negligible, our analysis focuses exclusively on emissions excluding LULUCF. These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align Egypt with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5°C compatible pathways. Achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support.
While fully aligning with 1.5°C will require international support, setting an unconditional target to be met with Egypt’s own resources can play an important part in strengthening its NDC target. The 2025 NDC cycle provides Egypt with an opportunity to present a 2035 target which lays out 1.5°C aligned ambition for the next decade.
Egypt's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (excluding LULUCF)
Data References (excluding LULUCF)
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Long term pathway
Egypt currently has no long-term emissions reduction target. 1.5°C compatible pathways would see Egypt cut its emissions to 165 MtCO2e by 2050 excluding LULUCF. This equates to 52% below 2015 levels.
Egypt’s National Climate Change Strategy 2050 highlights the role of fossil gas in its long term energy and transport planning.3 Although Egypt is beginning to ratchet up renewables, investments in gas infrastructure will place 1.5°C compatibility out of reach.4 To ensure that Egypt aligns with 1.5°C, planned fossil fuel investments can be redirected towards a faster rollout of renewables.
Egypt's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Egypt. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2015
Reference year
|
2023
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
340
|
397
|
256 to
355
|
219 to
302
|
173 to
243
|
95 to
165
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-25 to
4%
|
-36 to
-11%
|
-49 to
-29%
|
-72 to
-51%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
210
|
264
|
200 to
223
|
147 to
212
|
98 to
160
|
13 to
68
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-5 to
6%
|
-30 to
1%
|
-53 to
-24%
|
-94 to
-68%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
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Methodology
Data References
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