Ambition Gap

To be 1.5°C compatible, Egypt’s 2030 emissions would be 1% above to 30% below 2015 levels, excluding LULUCF.

In contrast, current policy projections indicate that Egypt’s emissions will reach 400-482 MtCO₂e by 2030, or 26-52% above 2015 levels.¹ Egypt’s conditional NDC target contains sectoral targets for the electricity, transport, and oil and gas sectors.² When these targets are taken into account, Egypt’s conditional NDC targets combined lead to emissions of 57-61% above 2015 levels.³

As a developing country, Egypt can achieve its conditional targets through international cooperation designed to close the gap between its fair share level and domestic emissions level. However, meeting its Paris Agreement obligations also involves cutting emissions independent of international support. As Egypt does not yet have an unconditional emissions reduction target, declaring one would help Egypt meet its international obligations.

Egypt's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Target Year

2030
2035

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2023. Last inventory year: 2021.

Long term pathway

Egypt currently has no long-term emissions reduction target. 1.5°C compatible pathways would see Egypt cut its emissions to 78-125 MtCO₂e by 2050 excluding LULUCF. This equates to 61-75% below 2015 levels.

Egypt’s National Climate Change Strategy 2050 highlights the role of fossil gas in its long-term energy and transport planning.⁴ The country’s significant investment in its gas infrastructure underscores this.⁵ However, expansion of fossil fuel infrastructure runs counter to the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Note: deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in the modelled pathways

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- IEA, World Energy Balances 2023

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2023. Last inventory year: 2021.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Egypt. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	2015 Reference year	2021	2030	2035	2040	2050
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	317	345	223 to 309	209 to 258	164 to 221	78 to 125
Relative to reference year in %			-30 to -3%	-34 to -19%	-48 to -30%	-75 to -61%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	203	233	164 to 215	140 to 205	95 to 154	12 to 61
Relative to reference year in %			-19 to 6%	-31 to 1%	-53 to -24%	-94 to -70%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2023. Last inventory year: 2021.
- Download data as CSV

Climate Action Tracker, “Climate Action Tracker - Egypt (August 2023 Update)”. ↩
Government of Egypt, “Egypt’s Second Updated Nationally Determined Contributions” (Government of Egypt, 2023) ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “Climate Action Tracker - Egypt (August 2023 Update).” ↩
Government of Egypt, “Egypt National Climate Change Strategy 2050” (Government of Egypt, 2022) ↩
Egypt State Information Service, “Mulla: Oil, Gas Production in Egypt Set to Increase with $17B Investments,” Government of Egypt, 2024 ↩

What is Egypt's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Egypt's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Egypt's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Egypt's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Cookie settings

Statistics

Google