What is Egypt's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

2030 NDC

Egypt’s 2017 conditional NDC does not include an emissions reduction target. Instead, the NDC lists broad actions across the energy (including oil and gas), agriculture, waste, and industrial processes sectors to mitigate emissions.

Emissions gap

To close its emissions gap, Egypt’s NDC states the needs for financial support from Annex I parties in addition to technology transfer and local capacity building. Egypt did not submit an updated NDC ahead of COP26. As the host of COP27, Egypt need to submit a more ambitious and quantifiable mitigation target in its NDC in 2022.

Net zero

Egypt does not have a net zero target. At COP26, the government presented the Egypt National Climate Change Strategy – 2050; however, this does not include a mitigation target. 1.5°C compatible pathways show emissions reductions of 63-68% by 2050 below 2015 levels when excluding LULUCF emissions.¹1 On the road to net zero, the country will need to balance remaining emissions through the use of carbon dioxide removal approaches, such as land sinks.

Sectors

Power

• Fossil fuels accounted for 91% of Egypt’s power mix in 2017. Paris Agreement compatible pathways would require the power sector to be fully decarbonised by around 2036 to 2039 and contribute to negative emissions thereafter.

• This could be achieved through the phase out of natural gas in the power sector between 2037 and 2039. Egypt’s 2017 NDC includes fossil fuel options, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and upgrading fossil fuel plants. Considering the long lifetimes and decreasing competitiveness of fossil fuel plants, these measures come with the risk of stranded assets and locking into high-cost, high-emission technologies.

• Decarbonisation of the power sector would need to be supported by a high uptake of renewable energy (including variable renewables, hydro and biomass), from a share of 9% in 2019 to 77–95% by 2030, and reaching 100% before 2050. While the revision of the Egypt Integrated Sustainable Energy Strategy target to source 42% of power generation from renewables five years earlier, by 2030, is an improvement, this is still less than half-way through Paris Agreement compatible benchmarks.

• Considering Egypt’s ambition to serve as a regional energy hub exporting electricity to other African countries and Europe, and these countries’ increasing appetite for renewable energy, Egypt would benefit from an expansion of renewables in their power sector.²2^,33

Buildings

• The building sector accounted for 5% of Egypt’s emissions in 2019, however these emissions have increased by 74% between 1990 to 2019 due to growing demand. Egypt has adopted mandatory energy efficiency codes for buildings; however, the government has struggled to enforce these standards.

• Declining emissions in the analysed pathways are driven by increasing electrification of the building sector from just over half of building sector energy in 2019 to 72-74% by 2030 and 94-95% by 2050. Policies to plan the development of grid infrastructure and their maintenance as demand grows will be key to facilitate increased electrification.

• Full decarbonisation of the building sector could be reached between 2038 and 2045.

Transport

• In Egypt, the transport sector is the second largest source of emissions (15%) after the power sector, relying almost entirely on oil.

• Across analysed pathways, the extent of electrification varies, reaching 3 to 28% by 2030 and 24 to 83% by mid-century. Pathways with lower electrification rates have higher shares of hydrogen or biofuels.

• Given Egypt’s limited available agricultural land and water resources, production of energy crops for biofuels faces challenges; however, IRENA has identified significant potential for jatropha and sugar residues to supply biodiesel in Egypt, with biofuels supplying about 10% of Egypt’s transport energy mix by 2030 in their REmap Case.

• Egypt’s 2021/22 budget plans investment in the transport sector to more than doubled compared to 2020 and years before. Activities include the development of railways; electric vehicles manufacture and the development of hydrogen buses.

Industry

• In Egypt, industry process emissions and energy-related CO₂ emissions from industry each account for about 11% of total emissions. Process-related emissions have increased more rapidly than industrial energy-related CO₂ emissions.

• The cement industry is the largest contributor to industry emissions in Egypt and was identified by the government as the most attractive sector for mitigation efforts in the industry sector given its size and competitiveness. While some models indicate that process-related emissions could reach zero emissions before 2040 at the earliest, investments in innovation and R&D at global industry level will be key to drive the decarbonisation of the hardest to abate process-related emissions.

• Across analysed pathways, electrification increases from about a quarter of the industrial energy mix in 2019 to 26-32% by 2030 and 59-70% by 2050. Ammonia production is the largest contributor to energy-related CO₂ emissions in industry.