What is Egypt's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
The energy sector is Egypt’s highest emitting sector, as the country is still highly dependent on fossil fuels. The power sector makes up the largest share of energy emissions (30%), followed by transport (16%) and industrial energy use (12%). Industry processes and agriculture make up the next highest shares of total emissions, followed by waste.
Egypt’s total emissions fell from 2011 to 2014, coinciding with economic recession following the 2011 and 2013 revolutions.1 The reductions came entirely from the energy sector, with energy emissions falling 9%. During this period, Egypt suffered from a slowdown in natural gas production resulting in severe fuel shortages and power outages.2 Egypt’s economy and emissions have since rebounded, with energy emissions increasing 8% from 2014 to 2017. While the impact of COVID-19 on emissions is not yet clear, Egypt’s economy maintained positive growth in 2020 even as the regional economy in Africa contracted by 1.9%, maintaining positive growth in 2021.3
Egypt's current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. LULUCF emissions are not available - Source: PRIMAP 2021 and IEA GHG FUEL 2021 for combustion sector breakdown
Data References
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Energy system
As one of the top natural gas producers, Egypt’s primary energy supply is dominated by fossil fuels, with natural gas contributing 55% and oil contributing 37% in 2019. The remaining supply is a mix of coal (3%), biomass (4%) and other renewables (2%).
Egypt relies heavily on natural gas for electricity generation (about 77%). Remaining generation is supplied by oil (13%) and renewables (9%), mostly hydropower, followed by wind, solar, and bioenergy. Egypt’s growing power demand and decline in gas production following the 2011 revolution led to power and fuel shortages from 2011 to 2014. With the construction of new capacity, natural gas discoveries, and sector reform Egypt now has a surplus of power capacity with plans to export electricity.4–5
Egypt’s Vision 2030 set targets for their electricity mix in 2030. The strategy targets a significant increase in coal (to 29% of the power mix) and renewables (35%), the development of nuclear power (9%), and falling shares of oil and gas (27%).6,7 Egypt’s Integrated Sustainable Energy Strategy (ISES) sets electricity mix targets for 2035; however, at COP26, the government announced that the ISES target for 42% renewable energy in the power mix has been moved forward to 2030.
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
Other
NDC target
Conditional NDC
- Egypt’s NDC indicates action only. No target outcome is identified.
- States the needs for financial support from Annex I parties in addition to technology transfer and local capacity building.
Market mechanisms
- “A national market for carbon trading may be established. This national market may further be developed into a regional market, which can attract foreign direct investment in national carbon credit transactions, especially in the Arab and African region.”
Long-term target
- No long-term target.
Sectoral targets
Energy
Sustainable Development Strategy: Egypt Vision 2030
- Eliminate fuel subsidies by 2020.
Power
Measures stated in NDC:
- Energy efficiency improvements.
- Nuclear energy use for power generation.
- Renewable energy use for power generation.
Sustainable Development Strategy: Egypt Vision 2030
- 10% decline in energy sector GHG emissions.8
- Power generation mix in 2030:
- Oil and Gas: 27%
- Hydroelectricity: 5%
- Solar: 16%
- Wind: 14%
- Coal: 29%
- Nuclear: 9%
Transport
Measures stated in NDC:
- Energy efficiency improvements.
- Increase Share of Railways Pass. Transport.
- Increase Share of Buses Pass. Transport.
- Increase Share of Microbuses Pass. Transport.
- Increase Share of River Pass. Transport.
- Cairo metro (Line 3 phase 3& 4 + Line 4).
- Improve road transport efficiency.
- Switch from road to river transport.
- Switch from road to rail transport.
Buildings
Measures stated in NDC:
- Energy efficiency improvements.
- Utilisation of solar energy for water heating.
Waste
Measures stated in NDC:
- Solid waste
- Wastewater
- Incineration
Agriculture
Measures stated in NDC:
- Enteric fermentation
- Manure management
- Rice cultivation
- Agricultural soils
- Field burning of agricultural residues
LULUCF
Measures stated in NDC:
- “Additional mitigation measures include the increase of the country’s CO₂ absorptive capacity through plantation, maintaining suitable types of trees along road sides, the middle-island of inter-city and urban roads, and on irrigation and drainage canal banks. In addition, wood forests should use treated wastewater for irrigation.”