Argentina

Economy wide

Argentina’s NDC, updated in 2021, aims for absolute emissions in 2030 of 316 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF, which is a 9% reduction below 2015 levels.¹^,² In contrast, the level of ambition required for a 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway is 39% below 2015 levels, or 213 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030, excluding LULUCF.

Argentina's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Current policy projections

Argentina is not on track to meet its current NDC target, with current policy projections estimating emissions of 384-407 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030 or 10-17% above 2015 levels.

2050 Ambition

Argentina announced a goal of reaching net zero CO₂ by 2050.³^,⁴ 1.5°C compatible pathways show CO₂ emissions reductions close to zero by 2050 excluding LULUCF, and GHG emissions reductions of 72-83% below 2015 levels by 2050, to a level of 59-96 MtCO₂e (excl. LULUCF).⁵

Net zero GHG

Remaining emissions will need to be balanced by the use of carbon dioxide removal approaches, such as afforestation/reforestation. Given that the LULUCF sector is currently a source of emissions, Argentina will need to implement stronger policies to reduce these emissions, for the sector to become a sink and reach net zero GHG emissions.

Sectors

Power

To align itself with a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Argentina would need to increase its renewable energy share of power generation to at least 78% by 2030 and near 100% by 2040. A zero emitting power sector can already be reached in the 2030s.
To align with a 1.5°C compatible pathway, coal would need to be phased out almost immediately and fossil gas would need to be phased out of the power sector between 2035 and 2039.
Fossil gas has been promoted as a “clean” substitute for oil in Argentina’s updated NDC. Increasing gas infrastructure investments will create high energy costs, the potential for stranded assets, and lock-in emissions, making it more difficult to transition to a highly renewable systems.

Buildings

Argentina would need to increase the share of electricity in building sector energy demand from its current 35% to 54-71% by 2030 and reach zero emissions between 2034-2049.
Heating in Argentina is still dependant on fossil gas, which is the primary source of emissions in this sector.
The government has established some mitigation measures such as the National Programme for a Rational and Efficient Use of Energy (Spanish acronym PRONUREE), however these will not be sufficient to decarbonise the sector.

Transport

Argentina still has only a small percentage of electric vehicles (EV) in total car sales, though hybrid vehicle sales have been growing recently. Argentina needs to increase its investment in charging infrastructure.
1.5 °C compatible scenarios show the transport sector decarbonising before 2050 through a combination of electrification, biofuels, and hydrogen use.

Industry

Argentina’s industry energy demand still relies on fossil fuels. To be aligned with 1.5°C pathways, emissions need to be reduced by around two-thirds below 2019 levels by 2030.
Argentina would need to increase electricity’s share of total industry energy demand to 42-47% in 2030, reaching over 60% by 2040.
Further mitigation measures in the cement industry – one of the main sources of process emissions – are needed.

Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible Argentina. Segunda Contribución Determinada a Nivel Nacional de la República Argentina. UNFCCC, 2020. ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches. ↩
Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible Argentina. Segunda Contribución Determinada a Nivel Nacional de la República Argentina. UNFCCC, 2020. ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Argentina. November 2022 update. Climate Action Tracker. 2022. ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches. ↩

What is Argentina's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?