What is Argentina's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
In 2019, fossil fuels made up 69% of Argentina’s power mix, with fossil gas comprising the largest share.1 By 2030, fossil fuel power generation in the power sector will need to be cut drastically, with a phase-out of the last remaining coal-fired generation needed imminently. Argentina would need to scale up renewables in the power sector much more rapidly to reach at least a 78% share by 2030, more than tripling its 2019 level of roughly 25%. Currently, the majority of Argentina’s renewable energy comes from large-scale hydropower.2,3 Argentina would likely need to surpass its existing target of reaching 20% renewable power generation from non-hydro renewable sources, such as wind and solar, by 2025.4,5
Argentina's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
To align with a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Argentina’s power sector would need to reach net zero emissions before 2040. This could be driven by a rapid adoption of renewable power sources through to 2030 and beyond.
Fossil gas would need to be phased out sometime in the late 2030s. However, Argentina’s power sector remains heavily dependent on domestically extracted fossil gas, with no signals from government that this will change in the future.
Pathways with delayed fossil fuel phase-out show the deployment of costly CDR approaches around 2040.
Argentina's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Argentina to be on the order of USD 3 to 16 billion by 2030 and 7 to 27 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors and growing energy demand. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Argentina's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Argentina
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
287
|
15 to
70
|
0 to
2
|
-15 to
0
|
2034 to
2038
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-95 to
-76%
|
-100 to
-99%
|
-105 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
1
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
65
|
4 to
15
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
2035 to
2039
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
25
|
78 to
93
|
97 to
98
|
100 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
69
|
4 to
16
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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