Argentina’s NDC, updated in 2021, aims for absolute emissions in 2030 of 316 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF, which is a 9% reduction below 2015 levels.1,24 In contrast, the level of ambition required for a 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway is 39% below 2015 levels, or 213 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030, excluding LULUCF.
Argentinaʼs total GHG emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
- 1.5°C compatible pathways
- Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
- Current policy projections
- 1.5°C emissions range
- Historical emissions
Current policy projections
Argentina is not on track to meet its current NDC target, with current policy projections estimating emissions of 384-407 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030 or 10-17% above 2015 levels.
1 Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible Argentina. Segunda Contribución Determinada a Nivel Nacional de la República Argentina. UNFCCC, 2020.
2 Climate Analytics & NewClimate Institute. Argentina Climate Action Tracker 2022 update. Climate Action Tracker. 2022.
3 International Energy Agency (IEA). Argentina Country Profile. 2018.
4 Climate Transparency. BROWN TO GREEN: THE G20 TRANSITION TOWARDS A NET-ZERO EMISSIONS ECONOMY: Argentina. 2019.
5 Climate Action Tracker. Argentina: Current Policy Projections. 2020.
6 Ministry of Energy of Argentina. National Action Plan on Energy and Climate Change [Plan de Acción Nacional de Energía y Cambio Climático]. Ministry of Energy of Argentina [Ministerio de Energía de Argentina], 2017.
7 El Senado y Cámara de Diputados de la Nación Argentina. Ley 27191: Régimen de Fomento Nacional para el uso de Fuentes Renovables de Energía destinada a la Producción de Energía Eléctrica. Modificación Ley 26190. El Senado y Cámara de Diputados de la Nación Argentina, 2015.
8 Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible. Plan Nacional de Mitigación del sector Transporte – PNMT. 1–83 (2017).
9 Secretaria de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sustentable Argentina. Listado de medidas de mitigación y adaptación a nivel nacional (Contribución Nacional ) Febrero 2019. 2019.
10 República de Argentina. Plan de Acción Nacional de Agro y Cambio Climático. 2019.
11 Climate Action Tracker. Argentina | July 2020 Update.
12 Congreso de la Nación Argentina. Ley 26.331: LEY DE PRESUPUESTOS MINIMOS DE PROTECCION AMBIENTAL DE LOS BOSQUES NATIVOS. El Senado y Cámara de Diputados de la Nación Argentina, 2007.
13 Bauza, V. A New Dawn: Argentina Taps Into Its Renewable Energy Potential. International Finance Corporation, 2017.
14 Caruana, M. E. C. La energía renovable en Argentina como estrategia de política energética e industrial. Probl. del Desarollo 50, 2019.
15 Secretaria de Energia. Energy Balance Argentina 2019. 2019.
16 IEA. National Program for Rational and Efficient Use of Energy. 2017.
17 Government of Argentina. Argentina. Biennial update report (BUR). BUR 4. Submission to the UNFCCC. 2021.
18 Secretaria de Energia & Presidencia de la Nación. Diagnósticos Energéticos.
19 Secretaria de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sustentable, Ministerio de Produccion y Trabajo & Presidencia de la Nación. Plan de Acción nacional de Industria y Cambio Climático. 2018.
20 Argentina Government. El Senado convirtió en ley el nuevo régimen de biocombustibles. 2021.
21 Diamante, S. Año récord: cuáles son los autos eléctricos e híbridos que lideran el boom de ventas en la Argentina. La Nacion. 2022.
22 Argentina government. Hidrogeno 2030. 2022.
23 Lanfranchi, J. Hidrógeno verde en la Argentina: están demoradas inversiones millonarias por los tiempos de la política. La Nacion. 2022.
24 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.
25 This target is in AR4 GWP; Argentina originally expressed their NDC target in SAR GWP of 359 MtCO₂e excl. LULUCF. Mitigations targets are proportional to relevance of each sector, LULUCF emissions were deducted using the percentage of share expected for 2030.
Net zero GHG
Remaining emissions will need to be balanced by the use of carbon dioxide removal approaches, such as afforestation/reforestation. Given that the LULUCF sector is currently a source of emissions, Argentina will need to implement stronger policies to reduce these emissions, for the sector to become a sink and reach net zero GHG emissions.
- To align itself with a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Argentina would need to increase its renewable energy share of power generation to at least 78% by 2030 and near 100% by 2040. A zero emitting power sector can already be reached in the 2030s.
- To align with a 1.5°C compatible pathway, coal would need to be phased out almost immediately and fossil gas would need to be phased out of the power sector between 2035 and 2039.
- Fossil gas has been promoted as a “clean” substitute for oil in Argentina’s updated NDC. Increasing gas infrastructure investments will create high energy costs, the potential for stranded assets, and lock-in emissions, making it more difficult to transition to a highly renewable systems.
- Argentina would need to increase the share of electricity in building sector energy demand from its current 35% to 54-71% by 2030 and reach zero emissions between 2034-2049.
- Heating in Argentina is still dependant on fossil gas, which is the primary source of emissions in this sector.
- The government has established some mitigation measures such as the National Programme for a Rational and Efficient Use of Energy (Spanish acronym PRONUREE), however these will not be sufficient to decarbonise the sector.
- Argentina still has only a small percentage of electric vehicles (EV) in total car sales, though hybrid vehicle sales have been growing recently. Argentina needs to increase its investment in charging infrastructure.
- 1.5 °C compatible scenarios show the transport sector decarbonising before 2050 through a combination of electrification, biofuels, and hydrogen use.
- Argentina’s industry energy demand still relies on fossil fuels. To be aligned with 1.5°C pathways, emissions need to be reduced by around two-thirds below 2019 levels by 2030.
- Argentina would need to increase electricity’s share of total industry energy demand to 42-47% in 2030, reaching over 60% by 2040.
- Further mitigation measures in the cement industry – one of the main sources of process emissions – are needed.