Norway

Last update: 1 June 2021

Economy wide

A 55% reduction of emissions by 2030 would be aligned with the Paris Agreement according to the 1.5°C domestic emissions pathway derived by our analysis. However, under current policies, Norway is projected to fall well short of achieving its NDC.

Norway's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

2030 NDC

Norway’s updated NDC, submitted in February 2020, targets at least a 50% and towards 55% emissions reduction compared to 1990 levels by 2030.¹

Fair share

A fair share contribution to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement would require Norway to go further than its domestic target, and provide substantial support for emission reductions to developing countries on top of its domestic reductions.

2050 Ambition

Norway’s current 2050 target is to become a ‘low carbon society’, which the government has quantified as an 80-95% reduction in GHG emissions below 1990 levels. The government has announced its plans to amend the Climate Change Act to include a stronger 90-95% target, however this has not yet been approved by parliament. This would be aligned with a 1.5°C compatible pathway which would require remaining emissions levels of 93% below 1990 levels (excl. LULUCF) by 2050.² Norway will need to balance its remaining emissions to reach net-zero GHG by 2050.

Sectors

Power

Norway’s electricity generation comes predominately from hydropower, which constituted 90% of total generation in 2020, with a further 8.5% generated by wind power and less than 2% coming from fossil fuel generation.³^,⁴
The limited remaining fossil fuel generation would need to be phased out more or less immediately to be compatible with a 1.5°C trajectory, with natural gas generation phased out by 2023 at the latest.
Upgrading and expanding existing hydropower facilities could be a way to provide on demand power to facilitate the phasing out of remaining coal and gas plants.

Buildings

With Norway’s mostly decarbonised power sector, over half of homes in Norway are operating close to zero carbon heating systems through the use of heat pumps.
To be aligned with 1.5°C building sector pathways, Norway would need to continue along its current decarbonisation trajectory by eliminating the remaining oil and gas consumption through further electrification, mostly by 2030, and entirely shortly.

Industry

While oil and gas production including fugitive emissions constitutes over half of Norway’s industry emissions, 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways indicate that Norway would need to reduce direct CO₂ emissions by at least 62% below 2019 levels by 2030, a steeper reduction than needed for total emissions.

Transport

A long history of policy measures to encourage electric vehicle (EV) adoption has helped Norway to achieve the world’s highest share of EV sales in total car sales, reaching 65% in 2021. However, the country would need to pursue its efforts to align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, by reducing transport sector CO₂ emissions by at least 57% below 2019 levels by 2030.

Norwegian Government. Update of Norway’s nationally determined contribution. 1–16 (2020). ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability. ↩
Norwegian Government. Update of Norway’s nationally determined contribution. 1–16 (2020). ↩
IEA. World Energy Balances 2019. (2020). ↩

What is Norway's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?