What is Norway's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
Norway’s electricity generation comes predominately from hydropower, which constituted 90% of total generation in 2020.1 A further 8.5% was generated by wind power, with less than 2% coming from fossil fuel generation, down from a high of 4% in 2010. Much of the remaining fossil fuel generation is situated at industrial installations, and will come under increasing financial pressure as Norway’s carbon tax is tripled to €200/MtCO₂ by 2030.2 A 1.5°C compatible pathway for Norway’s power sector would see the remaining gas generation, which constitutes the majority of the sector’s fossil fuel use, phased out between 2022 and 2023.
Norway's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
A 1.5°C compatible pathway for Norway’s power sector would see net zero emissions achieved by 2023 at the latest. This would entail the shuttering of remaining fossil fuel plants by this time, or at the very least, switching from burning fossil fuels to sustainably sourced biomass. Retrofitting existing fossil fuel plants to burn sustainable biomass with carbon capture and storage would be a way to achieve negative emissions in the power sector.
Norway's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Norway to be on the order of USD 4 to 11 billion by 2030 and 7 to 16 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘High CDR’ scenario, which shows comparatively lower annual investments into renewables, has lower levels of electrification and at the global level relies more on carbon capture and storage and negative emissions technologies – which themselves can require high up-front costs and face sustainability constraints.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Norway's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Norway
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
10
|
1 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
-1 to
-1
|
2023 to
2025
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-93 to
-86%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
-109 to
-107%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
2
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
2022 to
2024
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
98
|
100 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
2
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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