What is Norway's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Norway’s large-scale oil and gas production along with its metals production makes the industry sector a prominent source of emissions. In 2019, these sectors constituted over half of total GHG emissions, including fugitive emissions from fuels.1 The world’s eighth largest producer of aluminium and a significant producer of steel, Norway’s emissions from these sectors alone made up around 17% of industry emissions in 2019, while oil and gas production including fugitive emissions constitutes over half. Energy-related emissions made up two-thirds of industry emissions in 2019, compared to one third for process emissions. This has changed significantly since 1990, when process emissions made up more than half, with the shift due primarily to the elimination of F-gas emissions from aluminium and magnesium production, and a doubling in oil and gas output.2,3
Norway's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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To align with modelled 1.5°C pathways, Norway would need to reduce direct CO₂ emissions from industry by at least 62% below 2019 levels by 2030, a steeper reduction than needed for total emissions. While some models already reach net zero emissions by around 2045, others would reach a fully decarbonised industry sector by 2050.4 The relatively high electrification level of Norway’s industry sector would need to continue to climb, reaching a roughly 90% electrification rate by 2050.
The Norwegian government recently reiterated its support for further developing the oil and gas sector despite the emissions intensive nature of its operations, a key obstacle to achieve decarbonisation of the industry sector.5 A strong reliance on the ability to commercialise and widely deploy carbon capture, usage, and storage (CCUS) technology underpins Norway’s plans to decarbonise its oil and gas sector. However, CCUS technologies remain prohibitively expensive and significant questions remain as to its commercial viability. Norway is also planning a CCUS-heavy approach for developing its hydrogen production sector, already entering into a review together with Germany to explore supplying them with hydrogen.6
Norway's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Norway's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, shares of electricity, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Norway
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised industry sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
19
|
4 to
7
|
2 to
3
|
0 to
1
|
2045
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-79 to
-62%
|
-89 to
-84%
|
-98 to
-94%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
65
|
65 to
73
|
79 to
85
|
87 to
91
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogren and biomass
per cent
|
71
|
76 to
78
|
88 to
88
|
93 to
95
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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