What is Norway's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Norway’s GHG emissions have remained relatively constant (between 54 and 58 MtCO₂e/yr) since the turn of the century. Since 1990, Norway’s oil and gas industry emissions have overtaken those from its manufacturing and mining sector, with the former’s emissions roughly doubling since 1990, now making up over a quarter of total emissions, while the latter’s have almost halved over the same period.1,2,3 This is despite the Norwegian oil and gas sector being subject to both the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and a domestic carbon tax with the latter having been in place since 1991.4 However, these policies have helped to keep the emissions intensity of its oil and gas extraction well below the global average.
Transport sector emissions have declined since 2014, but remain the second-largest source of energy-related GHG emissions, accounting for roughly a quarter of total emissions. Industry energy use, buildings and fugitive emissions each contribute roughly 5-6% of overall emissions, while industrial process-related emissions are responsible for about 18%. Agriculture and waste contribute 9% and 2% of total emissions respectively.
Norway's current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Last available (negative) LULUCF data point from 2018
Data References
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Energy system
With very little coal and limited natural gas use in the power sector, most fossil fuel use in Norway comes from natural gas burnt in oil and gas extraction and oil demand in the transport sector.5 The remaining thermal power plants are mostly at industrial installations and are subjected to both the CO₂ tax and the EU ETS.
World-leading electric vehicle (EV) policies have been implemented in Norway leading to the world’s highest EV share of passenger vehicle sales, reaching 54% and 16% of the total vehicle stock in 2020.6,7 As a result, oil demand in the transport sector has fallen in recent years and is likely to continue this downward trajectory. In its recent climate action plan, the government has unveiled plans to reduce emissions from other, but not all, forms of transport, including ferries and buses.8
The Climate Action Plan includes a tripling of its carbon tax to USD 220/MtCO₂, placing further financial pressure on oil and gas extraction and the remaining fossil fuel combustion in the power sector.9 However, there is currently no plan to phase out these polluting sectors of the economy.
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
Base year emissions target
National target
2030 Emissions Reduction Target:
- At least 55% below 1990 by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).
Market mechanisms
- Norway’s emissions trading scheme has been linked to the EU ETS since 2008 and covers the oil and gas sector, aviation, and much of industry.10
Long-term target
- Transformation to a low emission society by 2050 (quantified by the government as a 90-95% reduction below 1990 levels).11
Sectoral targets
Energy
- Non-ETS Sectors (transport, buildings, agriculture, waste management, industry and petroleum not covered under EU ETS):
- 40% reduction in 2030 as compared to 2005 level.
Transport
- All new cars sold from 2025 to be zero emission.12
- Electrify all domestic aviation by 2040.13
- Transform fjords into zero emissions control areas by 2026 (encourages the uptake of electric ferries).14
Buildings
- Ban on oil and paraffin heating systems in all buildings from 2020.15
LULUCF
- Emissions do not exceed removals.16