What is Norway's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Buildings
A world-leading effort to switch buildings heating to heat pumps, combined with a tightening of building regulations over recent decades has led to a steep decline in direct emissions from the buildings sector, falling by over three quarters between 1990 and 2019.1 This decline comes from a reduction in the combustion of liquid fuels, which declined by 62% over the same period, far outweighing the small increase in natural gas use for commercial building heating.
Norway's energy mix in the buildings sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the buildings sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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In 2020, over 96% of all heating systems sold in Norway were heat pumps, while over 50% of households have a heat pump installed, the highest rate in Europe.2 With Norway’s mostly decarbonised power sector, this means that over half of homes in Norway are operating close to zero carbon heating systems, a significant achievement. An agreement in 2012 by Norway’s parliament to ensure new buildings from 2020 would be near-zero energy has yet to be followed through on, though, as the requirements for achieving this status have not yet been defined.3
To be aligned with 1.5°C building sector pathways, Norway would need to continue along its current decarbonisation trajectory by eliminating the remaining oil and gas consumption through further electrification, mostly by 2030, and entirely shortly after. The use of hydrogen for heating should be utilised only if it is zero carbon. Norway is currently investing heavily in a pathway that is not Paris-compatible, in the form of so-called blue hydrogen which refers to hydrogen made from fossil fuels but using carbon capture and storage technologies.
Norway's buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the buildings sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and hydrogen in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Norway
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
1
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-70 to
-39%
|
-86 to
-70%
|
-89 to
-88%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
80
|
86 to
91
|
89 to
92
|
90 to
94
|
|
Share of heat
per cent
|
7
|
5 to
8
|
6 to
8
|
8 to
8
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
5
|
0 to
20
|
0 to
17
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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