What is The Gambia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
The Gambia
Economy wide
1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that The Gambia should reduce its domestic emissions by 25% emit no more than 2.2 MtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF) by 2030.
The Gambia's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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2030 NDC
The Gambia’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) sets out an emissions reduction target of 49.7% (incl. LULUCF) below business as usual (BAU) by 2030 which translates to an absolute emissions level of 2.7 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF in 2030.1-2
Fair share
The Gambia’s 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway is feasible to achieve if the country receives adequate international support.
Long term strategy
The Gambia submitted its Long Term Climate Neutral Development Strategy 2050 to the UNFCCC in September 2022 which includes its net zero target by 2050.3 To be 1.5°C compatible, The Gambia’s GHG emissions (excl. LULUCF) need to fall to 40% below 2015 levels by 2050 which equals 1.8 MtCO₂e.
Sectoral emissions
When excluding LULUCF, these emissions reductions will be mostly driven by efforts to improve agricultural practices and to reduce reliance on imported fuel oil in the transport sector.