What is The Gambia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
1.5°C compatible pathways
The Gambia’s second NDC, submitted in September 2021, includes land use emissions. As land use accounted for over a third of the country’s emissions in 2017, including it in the NDC greatly expands covered emissions.1,2,3 However, the second NDC does not result in lower emissions than the first one due to the upward revision of the BAU scenario.4
The Gambia’s NDC target of 49.7% reduction below BAU including LULUCF in 2030 contains an unconditional component equal to a 2.6% reduction. The majority of the unconditional emissions reductions of the NDC target will be met through the land sector with a small contribution from renewable energy use. Excluding LULUCF, the conditional NDC target in 2030 would result in absolute emissions of 2.7 MtCO₂e/yr, or 8% below 2015 levels. The unconditional portion of the NDC would result in 5.5 MtCO₂e/yr, or 85% above 2015 levels. The Gambia’s NDC target is not aligned with a 1.5°C pathway.
The Gambia could achieve a 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway if it received adequate international support. 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that The Gambia’s domestic emissions reductions would need to be 25% below 2015 levels or 2.2 MtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF) by 2030.
The Gambia's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Long term pathway
The Gambia has a set a net zero target by 2050 included in its Long-term strategy released in September 2022.5,6
To be 1.5°C compatible, The Gambia’s GHG emissions (excl. LULUCF) need to fall to 40% below 2015 levels by 2050, equating to 1.8 MtCO₂e.
When excluding LULUCF, these emissions reductions will be mostly driven by efforts in the agriculture and energy sector. Even though The Gambia’s agriculture sector uses far less synthetic materials (e.g. fertilizers) than the rest of the sub-Saharan African countries, the growing population and declining yield makes it a difficult sector to decarbonise.7
1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for The Gambia. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2015
Reference year
|
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
3
|
3
|
2
2 to
3
|
2
2 to
2
|
2
1 to
2
|
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-25%
-39 to
-15%
|
-36%
-49 to
-27%
|
-40%
-59 to
-33%
|
|||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
1
|
1
|
1
0 to
1
|
0
0 to
0
|
0
-0 to
0
|
2057
2046 to
2063
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
0%
0 to
0%
|
0%
0 to
0%
|
0%
0 to
0%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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