What is the European Union's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
the European Union
The Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario drastically reduces Europe’s fossil energy dependence
The HPA scenario comes at a time when Europe’s dependency on fossil fuels has not only been flagged as a climate concern but an energy security problem. The EU is a net fossil fuel importer. In 2024, 57% of the EU’s total energy was imported. To align with the HPA scenario, the EU needs transition to 63% renewables in its primary energy mix by 2035 and to 95% by 2050. Under the HPA scenario, the EU could reduce its dependence on oil by 57% and gas by 82% in 2035.
the European Union's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in the HPA scenario. For developing countries, achieving these reductions will require international support.
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Graph description
The figure shows a national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathway for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF in the Highest Possible Ambition scenario. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). While we don’t present country-level estimates, the HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world.
Methodology
Data References
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Scale up capacity and investments in renewable power
Following the HPA scenario, the EU’s scales up its renewable electricity capacity to 3,400 GW of by 2050. To achieve this, USD 107 bn (EUR 108 bn) in annual investments are needed by 2030. Most will go towards solar (EUR 46 bn) and wind (EUR 45 bn). The HPA scenario foresees high investment needs in the near term to front load the necessary levels of renewables to achieve deep emission cuts. The total cost of the HPA scenario amounts to EUR 2 tn between 2026 and 2050.
Clear electrification targets are needed
The EU’s forthcoming Electrification Package provides an opportunity to set clear targets for end use sectors (transport, industry and buildings). Our HPA scenario shows how the EU can do so whilst aligning with the 1.5°C limit: by 2035, electrification would account for 43% in industry, 35% in transport and 50% in buildings. To achieve these goals with meaningful emissions reductions, 92% of that electricity would need to be generated from renewable sources – roughly double today’s renewable share.