What is the European Union's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
the European Union
EU 2030 target not yet in line with 1.5°C
The EU’s NDC target would see 2030 GHG emissions reduced by 52% compared to 1990 levels, excluding LULUCF. In contrast, 1.5°C compatible pathways show EU-wide emissions levels falling 62% below 1990 levels excluding LULUCF, or 68% including LULUCF by 2030. To be 1.5°C aligned, the EU needs to rein in an additional 466 MtCO2e/yr on top of its gross emissions target (excluding LULUCF), or 592 MtCO2e/yr on top of its net emissions target (including LULUCF).
Factsheet on the EU's 1.5ºC aligned emission levels for 2030 and 2035 can be accessed here.
the European Union's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (ecluding LULUCF)
Data References (ecluding LULUCF)
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Renewable targets fall short of what is needed for 1.5°C aligned power sector
The EU’s renewable energy plans that strive for a 69% renewable energy share in electricity generation by 2030 are encouraging, though they fall short of what is required to make the sector 1.5°C compatible. Renewables would need to account for at least 84% of the electricity mix by 2030 (up from 44% in 2023) to align with 1.5°C.
Industrial sector needs clear electrification targets
The EU’s latest plans to decarbonise its industrial sector and support low carbon technologies are steps in the right direction. However, the sector still lacks clear electrification targets. Under a 1.5°C pathway which best captures falling renewables’ costs, the share of electricity and hydrogen in the industry mix could reach 55% by 2030.