What is the European Union's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
the European Union's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Road transport is the dominant mode of passenger transport, as well as the sector’s main source of emissions.3 Rapid uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) will be pivotal to cutting transport emissions. The Deep Electrification pathway would see the strongest EV uptake through subsidies and a rollout of charging infrastructure, allowing electricity to make up 47% of the transport energy mix in 2050.
The Minimal CDR Reliance pathway envisages a high share of electricity (52% by 2050), helping to reduce the reliance on biofuels, which have scalability and sustainability concerns. More electricity will be needed to meet EV demand combined with the expansion of electric rail by 2050. This pathway also sees greater reductions in energy consumption. This can be achieved though stronger policies supporting more public and shared modes of transportation. For example, replacing short haul flights with high-speed rail.4 Remaining oil consumption in transport in 2050 would likely be concentrated in long-distance transport such as aviation and shipping. It could further be reduced by the introduction of synthetic fuels, which are not captured in these pathway
In all pathways, the use of hydrogen and biofuels in transport increases, which can help decarbonise sectors that are harder to electrify like aviation and shipping within the EU. Electricity, hydrogen and biofuels together account for 74-87% of the 2050 transport mix according to assessed 1.5°C pathways.
The EU adopted a target of 29% ‘renewable energy’ by 2030 (including electricity, biofuels and hydrogen) in its updated Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) for the final energy consumed in transportation.5 This would go above the share of zero emission fuels envisaged across all 1.5°C compatible pathways of 19-28% by 2030. However, the Directive does not clearly outline how it will track the uptake of renewable sources of electricity and infers that unsustainable food-based biofuels will play a large role in achieving this target. Worryingly, the EU also considers liquefied natural gas as a “low carbon fuel” for shipping.6
the European Union's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for the European Union
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
766
|
376 to
545
|
215 to
384
|
98 to
202
|
24 to
53
|
2046 to
2056
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-51 to
-29%
|
-72 to
-50%
|
-87 to
-74%
|
-97 to
-93%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
2
|
9 to
16
|
17 to
28
|
30 to
37
|
47 to
52
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
6
|
10 to
14
|
12 to
19
|
14 to
26
|
18 to
38
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
3
|
1 to
6
|
1 to
9
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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