Ambition Gap

Raising ambition

The European Union’s 2023 updated NDC targets economy-wide emissions of 55% below 1990 levels by 2030, including LULUCF.¹ Excluding LULUCF, this is equivalent to 52% below 1990 levels, or 2307 MtCO₂e.² This does not align with 1.5°C pathways, which would see the EU cut its emissions by 62% by 2030 relative to 1990 levels leaving an ambition gap of 466 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030.

However, the EU is not on track to meet its existing targets. Under current policies, the EU’s 2030 emissions would range between 2449-2755 MtCO₂e, or 43-50% below 1990 levels, excluding LULUCF.³

By 2035, the EU’s total emissions under 1.5°C compatible pathways would fall to 1020 MtCO₂e, or 78% below 1990 levels when including LULUCF. The EU would need to strengthen its 2030 target from its 2023 NDC and submit a 2035 target in line with these pathways to be 1.5°C compatible. For more information on our indicative 1.5°C LULUCF pathways, please see our methodology page.

Despite sweeping policy action taken under the European Green Deal to decarbonise Europe’s economy, ambition has been watered down in many key climate policies. For example, the EU considers liquified natural gas as a “low carbon fuel” in transport, keeping the door open for fossil gas to remain in the sector for longer.⁴ The EU has plans to boost the manufacturing and use of net zero technologies, but these plans include carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS), which is both costly and energy intensive. The EU’s plans fail to specify in which sectors CCUS will be deployed, which risks prolonging fossil fuel use where proven low carbon alternatives exist, such as electricity and green hydrogen.⁵

A fair share contribution to global emissions reductions would require the EU and its member states to go further than their domestic emissions pathways and support emissions reductions in developing countries via substantially upscaled climate finance.

the European Union's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Target Year

2030
2035

LULUCF

Excluded
Included

*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology (ecluding LULUCF)
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References (ecluding LULUCF)
- Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2024
- NDC and current policies projections incl. LULUCF: EU assumptions

Long term pathway

In 2021, the EU adopted the European Climate Law,⁶ enshrining its obligation to reach net zero GHG emissions by 2050 (including LULUCF). Based on the European Commission’s own assessment, progress by member states in implementing existing measures is insufficient to meet its long-term goal.⁷ Achieving this goal would require strong emissions cuts and reduced reliance on costly carbon capture and storage technologies – which the EU currently plans to have a capacity of 50 MtCO₂e annually by 2030.⁸

Assuming the EU achieves the level of LULUCF sink estimated in its own modelling, ⁹ the net zero target would be equivalent to emissions of 295 MtCO₂e when excluding LULUCF.¹⁰ This is in-line with 1.5°C compatible pathways, which show the EU’s emissions falling to between -13 and 400 MtCO₂e by 2050 – excluding LULUCF but including negative emissions technologies (in this case BECCS).

Additionally, the EU recently proposed a new 2040 GHG emissions reduction target of at least 90-95%.¹¹ However, when excluding LULUCF but including planned carbon capture and storage (CCS), the EU’s target effectively plans to cut emissions by 85% by 2040.¹² The target does not include phase-out dates for the use and production of fossil fuels, lacks transparency around the level and type of carbon removals planned in certain sectors, and outlines plans to heavily invest in carbon capture and storage.¹³

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2023. Last inventory year: 2021.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for the European Union. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	1990 Reference year	2021	2030	2035	2040	2050
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	4829	3439	1478 to 1854	973 to 1284	433 to 811	-13 to 409
Relative to reference year in %			-69 to -62%	-80 to -73%	-91 to -83%	-100 to -92%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	3550	2550	734 to 1209	316 to 741	-92 to 355	-468 to -44
Relative to reference year in %			-79 to -66%	-91 to -79%	-103 to -90%	-113 to -101%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2024
- Download data as CSV

European Union, “Update of the NDC of the European Union and Its Member States” (UNFCCC, 2023) ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “European Union.” ↩
Michael Petroni, Andrzej Ancygier, and Olivia Waterton, “Global Maritime Carbon Footprint: EU Policy Diffusion,” EU policy diffusion. Discussion Paper of the 4i-TRACTION Deliverable D3.7 (Berlin: Climate Analytics, 2023) ↩
WWF, “Joint NGO Statement on the Net-Zero Industry Act,” 2023 ↩
EU, “Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 30 June 2021 Establishing the Framework for Achieving Climate Neutrality and Amending Regulations (EC) No 401/2009 and (EU) 2018/1999 (‘European Climate Law’),” 2021 ↩
European Commission, “Climate Action Progress Report 2023,” 2023 ↩
European Commission, “Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on Establishing a Framework of Measures for Strengthening Europe’s Net-Zero Technology Products Manufacturing Ecosystem (Net Zero Industry Act),” 2023 ↩
European Commission, ‘Commission Staff Working Document: Impact Assessment Report (Part 3) - Europe’s 2040 Climate Target and Path to Climate Neutrality by 2050 Building a Sustainable, Just and Prosperous Society’ (European Commission, 2024) ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “European Union.” ↩
European Commission, “Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions Securing Our Future Europe’s 2040 Climate Target and Path to Climate Neutrality by 2050 Building a Sustainable, Just and Prosperous Society,” 2024 ↩
European Commission, ‘Commission Staff Working Document: Impact Assessment Report (Part 3) - Europe’s 2040 Climate Target and Path to Climate Neutrality by 2050 Building a Sustainable, Just and Prosperous Society’. ↩
European Commission, “Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: Towards an Ambitious Industrial Carbon Management for the EU,” 2024 ↩

What is the European Union's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Raising ambition

the European Union's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

the European Union's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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