What is the European Union's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
The EU’s GHG emissions were 3135 MtCO2e including LULUCF and 3380 MtCO2e excluding LULUCF in 2022. Emissions excluding LULUCF have fallen 30% since 1990.1 The power and transport sectors account for 24% and 23% of the EU’s total GHG emissions respectively in 2022. Industrial processes accounted for 8.6% of total GHG emissions, however when including the energy-related emissions used by industry, it is the largest emitting sector in the EU, responsible for almost 21% of emissions.2
Power sector emissions have fallen rapidly, supported by the strong growth of renewables and the steady reductions in coal-fired power generation.3 Emissions from buildings and industry have also fallen since the 1990s, though transport emissions have continued to rise.4 While transport sector emissions are below pre-COVID levels, they have been rebounded since 2020.5
The EU has introduced sweeping environmental regulations under the umbrella of the Fit-for-55 package and the European Green Deal. However, climate action to meet these goals seems to be stagnating as member states are not translating the EU’s level of ambition into national policies. According to a Commission assessment, EU member states are not implementing policies fast enough to reach its net zero goal and that further action is required.6
the European Union's 2022 GHG emissions
excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
Data References
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Energy overview and main policy gaps
In 2021, oil and gas provided 32% and 25% of the EU’s primary energy, respectively.7 The end-use sectors of transport, residential buildings and industry were responsible for 31%, 27% and 25% respectively of final energy consumption.8 Energy consumption in transport and industry have rebounded since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Major policy gaps remain in the buildings, transport and industry sectors. For example, the lack of sector specific targets on zero carbon fuels and technologies, and continued subsidies for fossil fuels produced and consumed across sectors. Of the updated National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) that have been submitted in 2024, while improvements have been made, most do not reflect the targets under the REPowerEU legislative package and necessary measures to achieve them. Consequently, the individual action of member states is not on track to meet the EU’s collective climate goals.9 The European Union and its member states directly subsidised fossil fuel energy to the tune of EUR 110 billion in 2023. Comparatively only EUR 62 (USD 70) billion in direct subsidies were allocated to renewable energy generation investments.10
By continuing to support fossil fuels through subsidies and special conditions in legislation, the EU is incentivising increased fossil fuel use and undermining its climate neutrality goals. This also risks creating costly stranded assets in the future and diverting critical financing from proven clean solutions such as renewables, electric vehicles and heat pumps.11
Targets and commitments
Target in 2023 NDC update:
As expressed in the NDC:
- Economy-wide net domestic reduction of at least 55% (or 2100Mt) in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 199012
When excluding LULUCF, the EU’s NDC target translates to:
- 2321 MtCO2e or 52% reduction below 1990 levels by 203013
Long-term target
As formulated by the region: