What is the European Union's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Decarbonising the power sector
The EU has made progress in scaling up renewables in the power sector, with renewables providing almost 44% of electricity generation in 2023 (up from 38% in 2021).1 Solar has been performing well, but deployment of wind energy is not fast enough to meet the EU’s targets.2
the European Union's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023.
Methodology
Data References
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In all pathways, renewables in the power sector would rapidly scale up, with their share almost doubling from 2023 levels by 2030 to align with 1.5°C. The Deep Electrification pathway envisages renewables generating 87% of the EU’s electricity by 2030. The demand for renewable electricity under this pathway grows significantly by 2050 as the transport, industry and buildings end-use sectors become increasingly electrified.
The Minimal CDR Reliance pathway envisions lower growth in electricity demand, which can be achieved by increased energy efficiency. Even with stronger energy efficiency measures which would see growth in 2030 electricity demand increase by 10%, the share of renewables would need to reach 84% over the same period to align with 1.5°C. The EU estimates that it will need to achieve a 69% share of renewables in electricity generation by 2030, with 55% coming from wind and solar to meet the goals of the Renewable Energy Directive.3,4 This is not sufficient to align with 1.5°C pathways.
As renewable deployment grows, coal is essentially phased out as early as 2025, with coal’s share falling to less than 1% by 2030 across all pathways. A fossil gas phase-out would occur between 2030 and 2035. Current trends suggest that the current phasing out of coal and gas in power generation is far too slow to meet this target.5
the European Union's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for the European Union
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
222
|
16 to
20
|
0 to
8
|
-4 to
5
|
-9 to
0
|
2034 to
2040
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-93 to
-91%
|
-100 to
-96%
|
-102 to
-98%
|
-104 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
16
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
19
|
3 to
4
|
1 to
2
|
0 to
2
|
0 to
1
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
38
|
84 to
87
|
90 to
94
|
91 to
96
|
93 to
99
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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