the European Union

Last update: 1 August 2022

Economy wide

In December 2020, the European Council agreed to increasing the EU’s emissions reduction goal to a ‘net domestic reduction of at least 55%’ below 1990 levels by 2030. Adding ‘net’ means that it will include carbon sinks from the land use and forestry sector (LULUCF), thus weakening this goal by at least 2%. Paris Agreement compatibility for the EU would require emissions reductions of 61-70% below 1990 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF.

the European Union's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

2030 Ambition

Initial estimates indicate that the EU reduced its emissions by 31% between 1990 and 2020 (excluding LULUCF). Current policies adopted by the EU and its member states would result in emissions reductions of 35-40% below 1990 levels by 2030 (excl. LULUCF), indicating that further substantial policy action is needed to meet the new 2030 goal.

Fit for 55

In July 2021, the European Commission presented the “Fit for 55” legislative package of proposals amending existing laws and proposing new regulations aiming at reaching the newly adopted emissions reduction goal.

Fair share

A fair share contribution to global greenhouse gas emission reductions compatible with the Paris Agreement would require the EU to go further than its domestic target, and provide substantial financial or other support for emission reductions to developing countries on top of its domestic reductions.

Net zero GHG

The EU should reach net zero GHG emissions by around 2050 with a level of remaining GHG emissions not higher than 355 MtCO₂e by 2050 or 93% below 1990 levels.¹^,²

Decarbonisation

An increase in energy efficiency in all sectors, but especially in buildings and transport sectors, offers a great potential to accelerate decarbonisation.

2050 Ambition

By 2050 all energy consumed in the EU needs to be generated from renewable sources of energy.

Sectors

Power

The share of renewables in the power sector needs to increase from 38% in 2020 to 88-90% in 2030.³ By 2050 almost all electricity generated in the EU should be coming from renewable sources.
The share of coal in electricity generation fell from 23% in 2017 to 13% in 2020. By the end of the decade, almost all coal needs to be phased out from the power sector.
In 2017, the share of natural gas was lower than that of coal, at 18% of the EU’s electricity generation, though it has increased to 20% in 2020. Its share needs to decrease to 4-5% by 2030 and be completely phased-out by the end of the next decade, which stands in contrast to continued investment in natural gas infrastructure in the EU.
In order to align with 1.5°C pathways, carbon intensity needs to fall to 50 gCO₂/kWh by 2030, with some scenarios reaching 0 gCO₂/kWh by 2030 and becoming a source of negative emissions towards 2050.

Industry

Between 1990 and 2017, emissions from the industry sector in the EU decreased by 37%, with emissions from energy combustion decreasing twice as fast as process emissions.
Almost all scenarios analysed here show a significant reduction in total direct CO₂ emissions and processes emissions from the industry sector in the subsequent decades, with close to full decarbonisation of energy demand reached between 2050 and 2060. The analysed 1.5°C pathways also show an almost doubling of electrification rate of EU’s industry sector from 33% in 2019 to at least 63% in 2050.
Removing free allowances to heavy industry under the EU’s emissions trading system (EU ETS), combined with increased funding for low carbon technologies through the EU ETS Innovation Fund, could significantly reduce emissions from this sector in this decade.

Transport

Contrary to the overall trend, emissions in the transport sector in the EU increased significantly since 1990.
Illustrative 1.5°C compatible pathways require a change of this trend driven mainly by electrification and to a much lesser degree deployment of green hydrogen.
The EU has seen a recent uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) and the European Commission has proposed to reduce emissions of new passenger cars by 55% by 2030 in comparison to 2021 and by 100% by 2035.⁴ These are positive steps towards a full decarbonisation of the EU’s transport sector.

Buildings

Direct emissions from the buildings sector in the EU decreased by 24% between 2005 and 2020. To be compatible with the 1.5°C pathways, the EU would need to cut direct CO₂ emissions from buildings by more than a half and phase them out around late 2040s.
Almost all pathways assessed in our analysis assume a significant increase in the share of electricity in the building sector, with share of electricity in energy consumed increasing from 33% in 2017 to at least 52% in 2030, and 71% in 2050. This results mostly from electrification of heating (mostly through heat pumps) and cooking.
The Commission’s proposal to increase the share of renewable energy consumed in the households to at least 49% - more than twice the current level - by 2030 is a step in the right direction, but remain insufficient in transforming the sector.

Considering LULUCF sink projected by the Commission at 472 MtCO₂ (Scenario 1.5LIFE). Excluding LULUCF net-zero GHG would be brought twenty years later. ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability. ↩
Agora Energiewende and Ember. The European Power Sector in 2020: Up-to-Date Analysis on the Electricity Transition. Agora Energiewende and Ember. (2021). ↩
European Commision’s Proposal for a REGULATION OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL amending Regulation (EU) 2019/631 as regards strengthening the CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and new light commercial vehicles in line with the Union’s increased climate ambition. (2021) ↩

What is the European Union's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?