Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

Achieving 1.5°C compatibility would require the EU to reduce emissions to 68% below 1990 levels excluding LULUCF by 2030 (roughly 1548 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF sinks). This is 51% below EU’s approximated emissions in 2020, excluding LULUCF. Reaching this goal requires a significant acceleration in emissions reductions of at least 174 MtCO₂e/yr between 2021-2030. To compare, coal phase-out and the development of renewables between 2011-2018 resulted in average yearly emissions reductions of 53 MtCO₂e/yr.

The current goal of reducing emissions of ‘at least 55%’ incl. LULUCF (53% excl. LULUCF), would leave an emissions gap of 713 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030.

In addition to strengthening its emissions reduction goal, the EU also needs to strengthen its policies to reach more ambitious goals. The policies adopted by the EU and its member states would only result in emissions reductions of 41-47% (excl. LULUCF).

the European Union's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long term pathway

To be compatible with 1.5°C pathways, the EU’s emissions (excl. LULUCF) need to fall by 93% below 1990 levels or 355 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050.¹ The majority of these remaining emissions will be from the agriculture sector, and in some scenarios, from the industry sector. Emissions from the energy sector are projected to be negative by the 2040s, and even the late 2030s in some scenarios.²

According to the EU’s analysis conducted in 2018 for the EU27+UK, estimates that EU would need reduce emissions by between 95% (for Scenario 1.5TECH) and 92% (for Scenario 1.5LIFE) to reach a net zero goal. The remaining emissions would be almost completely balanced by sinks from LULUCF.

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

Analysed 1.5°C compatible emissions scenarios show that CO₂ emissions need to decrease by 61-74% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, and reach reduction levels of 97-104% by 2050. Scenarios with the slowest emissions reductions to 2050 require much higher levels of negative emissions in the second half of the century. Depending on the scenario, the deployment of negative emissions starts between 2045 and 2064.

Almost all scenarios indicate a decrease in primary energy consumption – by 9-34% in 2030 and 2-37% in 2050. In the latter case, only one scenario with high reliance on negative emissions results in an increase in energy consumption – up 9% from 2017.

Our scenarios show renewables have the potential to generate up to 100% of electricity by the middle of the century. The rest of the electricity would need to come from carbon dioxide removal technologies such as BECCS and nuclear.

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for the European Union. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	1990 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	4871	3610	1548 1438 to 1877	564 462 to 974	355 -103 to 472
Relative to reference year in %			-68% -70 to -61%	-88% -91 to -80%	-93% -102 to -90%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	3878	2918	1298 1014 to 1525	400 100 to 660	18 -313 to 231	2053 2044 to 2063
Relative to reference year in %			-67% -74 to -61%	-90% -97 to -83%	-100% -108 to -94%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: EEA Greenhouse Gas Data Viewer (2020)
- Download data as CSV

While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability. ↩
In analysed global-least cost pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C, the energy sector assumes already a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS). ↩

What is the European Union's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

the European Union's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

the European Union's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

the European Union's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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