What is the European Union's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Energy system

Emissions reductions in the EU have been mainly driven by the decreasing share of coal in primary energy consumption – from 26% in 1990 to less than 12% in 2019. Despite a small decrease, oil remained the main source of energy, providing around a third of the EU’s gross energy in 2019.

The decreasing share of coal and oil was compensated by renewable generation, the share of which increased in the same period from less than 5% to almost 16%. Natural gas also increased by 6% to reach 23.1% in 2019. But it has declined from its peak of 23.3%, reached in 2010.

The most fundamental changes have occurred in electricity and heat generation sectors. In both cases, the share of renewables increased significantly: by almost 20% and 27% respectively. The industry sector’s share of renewables has also increased, but in 2010 this source of energy covered less than 10% of directly consumed energy. Transport is the sector with the lowest share of renewables at around 5%. The current EU goal is to increase the share of renewables in the transport sector to 14% by 2030.

The EU has taken action to reduce its coal-fired electricity generation, resulting in installed capacity decreasing by 10% between 2018 and 2021. Only seven EU countries are planning to operate their coal power plants after 2030. However, this includes the two largest emitters in the EU: Poland and Germany. The latter has already adopted legislation to phase-out coal by 2038.

Targets and commitments

Economy-wide targets

Target type

Base year emissions target

NDC target

• 55% below 1990 by 2050 (incl. LULUCF and intra-EU aviation).
• 54% below 1990 by 2030 (excl. LULUCF and excl. intra-EU aviation).

Market mechanisms

• In 2005 the EU introduced Emissions Trading Mechanism (EU ETS) covering emissions from electricity generation, introduced and intra-EU aviation. Currently the EU ETS covers around 45% of the EU’s emissions.

Long-term target

• In December 2019, heads of the EU member states agreed on the goal of reaching “climate neutrality” by 2050 without specifying exactly what this goal includes.¹1 An indication has been provided by the European Commissions in its Analysis of climate neutral economy.²2 Out of eight scenarios presented, two result in emissions reduction of 89% and 90%, with almost all of the remaining emissions counterbalanced by carbon removals. With the adoption of the European Climate Law in June 2021 the climate neutrality goal became legally binding.

Sectoral targets

Energy

• According to the existing legislation, EU’s energy consumption should not exceed 1128 Mtoe of primary energy or 846 Mtoe of final energy.³3^,44 The revision of the Energy Efficiency Directive proposed by the Commission in July 2021 includes a more ambitious target of reducing primary energy demand to 1023 Mtoe and final energy demand to 787 Mtoe.

Power

• Reducing emissions covered by the EU ETS (mostly power and industry) by 43% between 2005 and 2030.⁵5 To achieve the recently adopted emissions reduction goal, in July 2021 the Commission presented a “proposal”https://ec.europa.eu/clima/eu-action/eu-emissions-trading-system-eu-ets_en for a revised EU ETS that increases this emissions reduction goal to 62%.

Transport

• The Effort Sharing Regulation obliges member states to reduce emissions in sectors not covered by the EU ETS, including transport, by between 0 and 40%, on average by 30% between 2005 and 2030.⁶6 The Commission’s proposal from July 2021 amending this law increases this range to between 10 and 50%, with average emissions reduction for the EU at 40%.
• Under the current legislation, average emissions from new passenger cars sold in 2030 should be 37.5% below the average emissions in 2021.⁷7 European Commission’s proposal from July 2021 increases this emissions reduction goal to 55% and creates a new goal of 100% reduction by 2035.
• Currently, average emissions from new light commercial vehicles sold in 2030 must be 31% below the average emissions in 2021.⁸8 The European Commission’s proposal from July 2021 increases this emissions reduction goal to 50% and creates a new goal of 100% reduction by 2035.
• For heavy duty vehicles, average emissions of new vehicles sold in 2030 should decrease by 30% in comparison to the average emissions between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020.⁹9

Buildings

• The Effort Sharing Regulation obliges member states to reduce emissions in sectors not covered by the EU ETS, including buildings, by between 0 and 40%, on average by 30% between 2005 and 2030.12 The Commission’s proposal from July 2021 amending this Regulations increases this range to between 10 and 50%, with average emissions reduction for the EU at 40%.
• The Commission’s proposal for a revised Renewable Energy Directive from July 2021 introduces the target of increasing the share of renewables in the buildings sector to 49%.
• Highly energy efficiency and decarbonised building stock.¹⁰10

Waste

• The Effort Sharing Regulation obliges member states to reduce emissions in sectors not covered by the EU ETS, including Waste, by between 0 and 40%, on average by 30% between 2005 and 2030.¹¹11 The Commission’s proposal from July 2021 amending this Regulations increases this range to between 10 and 50%, with average emissions reduction for the EU at 40%.

Agriculture

The Effort Sharing Regulation obliges member states to reduce emissions in sectors not covered by the EU ETS, including Agriculture, by between 0 and 40%, on average by 30% between 2005 and 2030.¹²12 The Commission’s proposal from July 2021 amending this Regulations increases this range to between 10 and 50%, with average emissions reduction for the EU at 40%.

LULUCF

• For the periods 2021-2025 and 2026-2030, each member states shall ensure that emissions from the LULUCF sector do not exceed removals. However, this goal is weakened by some exceptions and flexibilities.¹³13
• The Commission’s proposal amending the Regulation on Land Use, Forestry and Agriculture from July 2021 introduces the target for carbon removals by natural sinks equivalent to 310 MtCO₂ by 2030.