What is the European Union's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
The emissions from the EU manufacturing sector fell by 37% between 1990 and 2017. Noticeably, process emissions, which in 1990 contributed a third of total GHG emissions, decreased much slower (–22%) than emissions from energy consumption in the industry sector (–45%). The 1.5°C compatible scenarios show a wide range of decarbonisation pathways for the sector. According to the scenarios with high reliance on carbon dioxide removal (CDR), process emissions will decrease much faster than emissions from energy consumption – by 78% and 19% respectively. Most of the remaining scenarios, e.g. high energy demand, low CDR, see slightly faster reduction in emissions from energy consumption (around 30%) than process emissions (19%). Almost all scenarios analysed in this project show a significant reduction in total emissions from the industry sector in the subsequent decades, with close to full decarbonisation of energy demand reached between 2040 and 2048. The analysed 1.5°C pathways show an almost doubling of electrification rate of EU’s industry sector, from 33% in 2019 to at least 63% in 2050. In May 2021, the EU published an updated industrial strategy however not providing concrete measures which would lead to higher electrification but rather ‘designing’ transition pathways for the sector.
the European Union's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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In the EU, the industry sector is covered by the Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), however, the sectors that could potentially be affected by carbon leakage receive a portion of their emissions allowances for free. The implementation of a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, as recently suggested by the European Commission, if implemented, would result in a steady removal of free allowances. When combined with the funding for deployment of low carbon technologies in the framework of the Innovation Fund, removing the free allowances may result in a significant reduction in emissions from this sector in this decade.
While technologies to almost completely decarbonise some of the most carbon intensive sectors exist, such as steel production using green hydrogen, the speed of their deployment is uncertain, despite some positive developments.1
the European Union's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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the European Union's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, shares of electricity, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for the European Union
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised industry sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
500
|
215 to
240
|
65 to
92
|
17 to
20
|
2040 to
2048
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-57 to
-52%
|
-87 to
-82%
|
-97 to
-96%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
33
|
40 to
42
|
54 to
58
|
63 to
64
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogren and biomass
per cent
|
43
|
50 to
59
|
59 to
81
|
69 to
81
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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