What is the European Union's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
The emissions intensity of electricity generation in the EU fell from 301 gCO₂e/kWh in 2017 to 231 gCO₂e/kWh in 2020. This decrease was mainly due to an increase in the share of renewables to 39% in in the same time period. The 1.5°C compatible emissions scenarios require a decrease in emissions intensity to around 50 gCO₂/kWh in 2030. This future decrease would mostly result from increasing the share of renewables in the power sector to between 77-79% by 2030 compared to 2019. This 1.5°C compatible share in 2030 is much above the results of the European Commission’s analysis of 55% emissions reduction goal with a share of renewables set to increase to only around 65%.
Renewables would need to replace coal, which should be phased out by 2029. The share of natural gas would need to decrease from 18% in 2017 to 4-5% in 2030. According to the scenarios, natural gas consumption for electricity generation could be phased out between 2037-2040. Contrary to the consumption of primary energy, consumption of electricity is set to increase in almost all scenarios, with the share of renewables reaching up to 88% in scenarios assuming low uptake of negative emissions post-2050.
the European Union's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
Increasing the share of renewables, combined with coal phase-out by 2030, a decreasing role of natural gas and its phase-out before 2040, and the deployment of negative emissions technologies starting in the 2030s results in power sector reaching zero emissions between 2035 and 2045, with negative emissions from then on.
In some scenarios by 2050 between 4-10% of electricity in the EU could be generated from negative emissions technologies (NETs) such as BECCS installations. Scenarios assuming very high and early deployment of renewables (between 6-7-fold increase by 2050 in comparison to 2017), as well as those prioritising energy efficiency achieve zero emissions without NETs by 2050.
By 2050 – and in some scenarios already by 2040 - almost all energy comes from renewables and NETs (in this case BECCS). The share of fossil fuels decreases to less than 3% by 2040, and to 0% by 2050. Most of it would possibly be small combined heat and power plants, steadily replaced by low carbon alternatives.
the European Union's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in the EU is in the order of USD 37 to 326 billion by 2030 and 64 to 511 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which will be driven by an increase in electrification of end-uses and the need to replace already aging electricity infrastructure. It will be accompanied with a significant decrease in investment needed for other fuels. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the later can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time compared with a current policy scenario. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
the European Union's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for the European Union
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
239
|
49 to
56
|
0 to
1
|
-72 to
-8
|
2038 to
2040
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-79 to
-77%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
-130 to
-103%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
17
|
1 to
2
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
20
|
9 to
11
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
2037 to
2040
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
34
|
59 to
75
|
75 to
91
|
94 to
94
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
39
|
11 to
15
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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