What is Mexico's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Mexico
Aligning with 1.5°C can enhance energy independence and economic growth
Aligning with 1.5°C would see renewables meet 26% of primary energy consumption by 2030. This can be achieved through well-coordinated planning across government departments which electrifies both electricity supply and end-use sectors. However, plans for Pemex, the state-owned energy company, to spend USD 90 bn by 2030 on developing oil and gas wells wastes valuable state resources which could be used to expand renewable energy.
Mexico's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*This pathway reflects the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in the HPA scenario. For developing countries, achieving these reductions will require international support.
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Graph description
The figure shows a national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathway for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF in the Highest Possible Ambition scenario. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). While we don’t present country-level estimates, the HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world.
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Current investments in renewables are well short of what is needed to align with 1.5°C
Mexico currently plans to spend USD 12.3 bn between 2024-2030 on ‘clean’ energy, some of which will be directed towards gas, with the private sector adding up to USD 9 bn extra. To align with the HPA scenario, Mexico would invest USD 22.5 bn in generation capacity annually between 2026-2030 (none of which is directed towards gas). This effectively means spending the 2024-2030 investment figures every year out to 2030.
Domestic hydrogen industry plans put Mexico in a good position to align industry with 1.5°C
Hydrogen will be key to decarbonising harder-to-abate industries, particularly Mexico’s large cement sector. By 2050, 17% of industrial energy demand would be met by hydrogen under the HPA scenario. In the near term, electrification can be rolled out faster, with 60% of demand in 2035 met by electricity (up from 43% in 2023). Support for factories to build on-site wind and solar can take pressure off the grid while reducing emissions from energy demand.
A 1.5°C compatible transport sector can make Mexico’s cities work for all its citizens
Despite 81% of Mexico’s population living in urban areas, inadequate public transport has led to congestion, poor air quality, and high travel times. Greater investment in public transport and a phase-out of polluting vehicles (including hybrids) can build on past successes so that by 2035, electricity could meet 34% of transport demand. The fully electric Mexico City Metro shows the potential of a well-functioning, fully electric public transport system.