What is Mexico's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Mexico
2030 ambition falls short of 1.5°C
Mexico’s 2022 NDC is not aligned with the Paris Agreement. Its conditional target aims to reduce emissions by 40% below business-as-usual by 2030. This would lead to GHG emissions ranging between 5% above to 6% below 2015 levels, excluding LULUCF. To be 1.5°C compatible, 2030 GHG emissions need to be 35% below 2015 levels (excluding LULUCF).
Mexico's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Renewables target just halfway to being aligned with 1.5°C
1.5°C compatible pathways show the share of renewables in the power sector reaching at least 86% by 2030. However, Mexico currently aims to increase renewables’ share in the electricity mix to 45%, a little over half of what is needed to align with 1.5°C.
Investing in wind and solar can reduce Mexico’s reliance on expensive fossil fuels
Under one pathway, Mexico achieves a carbon-free power sector by 2035 by investing an average USD 12 bn annually in wind and solar between 2026-2030. Between 2031-2050 this would fall to an average of USD 3.6 bn annually. While Mexico is likely to continue to need some international support for its energy transition, it also has significant opportunities to redirect money currently used to support fossil fuel consumption (USD 98 bn in 2022) and fossil fuel exploration and production (USD 18 bn in 2022).