What is Mexico's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Mexico
Electrify transport to align with 1.5°C
Mexico can align its transport sector with 1.5°C through an electric vehicle rollout and electrification of the public transport system. The electrification rate can rise to 5% in 2030 and 56% in 2050. Efforts to increase the share of electric or hybrid vehicles to 100% of new vehicle sales by 2035 is a step in the right direction. However, as hybrids do not deliver the necessary emissions reductions to align with 1.5°C, this target can be strengthened to focus exclusively on EVs.
Mexico's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Renewables target only halfway to being aligned with 1.5°C
1.5°C compatible pathways show the share of renewables in the power sector reaching at least 86% by 2030, while fossil gas is phased out by 2035. Mexico currently aims to increase renewables’ share in the electricity mix to 45%, a little over half of what is needed to align with 1.5°C. Meanwhile, plans to increase domestic gas production run contrary to aligning with 1.5°C.
Mexico only needs to harness a small portion of its renewables potential to align with 1.5°C
Mexico has a technical potential of 25,000 GW of solar and 3700 GW of wind. Only a fraction of this needs to be harnessed to achieve 1.5°C. Aligning the power sector with 1.5°C would see capacity increase to at least 154 GW in 2030 and 308 GW in 2050.
Investing in wind and solar can reduce Mexico’s reliance on expensive fossil fuels
Mexico can achieve a carbon-free power sector by 2035 by investing an average USD 14–19 bn annually in renewables between 2026-2030. Between 2031–2050 this would fall to an average of USD 5–8 bn annually. While Mexico is likely to continue to need some international support for its energy transition, it also has significant opportunities to redirect money currently used to support fossil fuel consumption (USD 98 bn in 2022) and fossil fuel exploration and production (USD 112 billion between 2025–2030).