What is Mexico's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Ambition Gap

Raising ambition

In November 2025, Mexico submitted a 2035 indicative target in a new NDC. Analysis including numbers which are directly comparable to our pathways is underway.

Mexico’s unconditional target in its 2022 NDC aims to cut emissions by 35% below a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario by 2030, and by 40% conditional on international support.1 Given how emissions-intensive the BAU scenario is, even if the conditional NDC target is met, 2030 emissions will range between 8% below to 2% above 2015 levels, excluding LULUCF.2 In absolute numbers, this equates to 704-780 MtCO2e in 2030.3 To be 1.5°C compatible, 2030 emissions should be reduced to below 498 MtCO2e, or 35% below 2015 levels, excluding LULUCF.

Both Mexico’s current policy projections and its NDC target are well off what is needed to align with the 1.5°C limit.4 To be 1.5°C aligned, Mexico needs to urgently implement policies to reverse this trend, with a key focus on the energy sector.

Mexico's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

Target Year

*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.

  • Graph description

    The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

    Methodology

    Data References

Long term pathway

Currently, Mexico does not have a net zero target, though it submitted a long-term climate strategy in 2016 to the UNFCCC which aims to reduce emissions in 2050 by 50% compared to 2000.5

1.5°C compatible pathways would require Mexico to reduce its GHG emissions to 151 MtCO2e (excluding LULUCF) by 2050, or 80% below 2015 levels. If Mexico’s LULUCF sink maintained its current level (an average 189 MtCO2e/yr in 2022), Mexico would reach net zero GHG emissions around 2045 under 1.5°C compatible pathways.6

Enshrining a net zero target into law can help orient government agencies in terms of future planning. For any long-term target to be realistically achieved, however, emissions reductions need to be made in the near and medium terms. As of October 2025, Mexico is drafting its NDC 3.0.7 This represents a key opportunity to set an ambitious target which not only aligns medium term ambition with 1.5°C, but places Mexico on a clear path to achieving net zero emissions by 2045.

Mexico's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Mexico. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

LULUCF

Indicator
2015
Reference year
2023
2030
2035
2040
2050
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
763
783
320 to 498
163 to 410
114 to 287
47 to 151
Relative to reference year in %
-58 to -35%
-79 to -46%
-85 to -62%
-94 to -80%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
501
485
58 to 189
-42 to 129
-93 to 63
-220 to -57
Relative to reference year in %
-88 to -62%
-108 to -74%
-119 to -87%
-144 to -111%
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
570
Relative to reference year in %
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
308
Relative to reference year in %

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).

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