Ambition Gap

Raising ambition

Mexico’s unconditional target in its 2022 NDC aims to cut emissions by 35% below a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario by 2030, and by 40% conditional on international support.¹ Given how emissions-intensive the BAU scenario is, even if the conditional NDC target is met, 2030 emissions will range between 6% below to 5% above 2015 levels, excluding LULUCF.² In absolute numbers, this equates to 689-766 MtCO₂e in 2030.³ To be 1.5°C compatible, 2030 emissions should be reduced to below 475 MtCO₂e, or 35% below 2015 levels, excluding LULUCF.

Both Mexico’s current policy projections and its NDC target are well off what is needed to align with the 1.5°C temperature goal.⁴ To be 1.5°C aligned, the country would need to urgently implement policies to reverse this trend, with a key focus on the energy sector.

Mexico's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Target Year

2030
2035

*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References
- Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2024

Long term pathway

Currently, Mexico does not have a net zero target, though it submitted a long-term climate strategy in 2016 which aims to reduce emissions in 2050 by 50% compared to 2000.⁵

1.5°C compatible pathways would require Mexico to reduce its GHG emissions to 141 MtCO₂e (excluding LULUCF) by 2050, or 81% below 2015 levels. If Mexico’s LULUCF sink maintained its current level (an average 189 MtCO₂e/yr from 2010-2019), Mexico would reach net zero GHG emissions around 2045 under 1.5°C compatible pathways.⁶^,⁷

Enshrining a net zero target into law can help orient government agencies in terms of future planning. For any long-term target to be realistically achieved, however, emissions reductions need to be made in the near and medium terms. Mexico would thus benefit from a long-term climate strategy in conjunction with clear, actionable targets for 2030, 2035 and 2040.

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2023. Last inventory year: 2021.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Mexico. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	2015 Reference year	2021	2030	2035	2040	2050
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	733	696	311 to 475	152 to 380	102 to 268	55 to 141
Relative to reference year in %			-58 to -35%	-79 to -48%	-86 to -63%	-92 to -81%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	483	411	61 to 185	-40 to 130	-93 to 65	-219 to -53
Relative to reference year in %			-87 to -62%	-108 to -73%	-119 to -87%	-145 to -111%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2024
- Download data as CSV

SEMARNAT, “Contribución Determinada a Nivel Nacional: Actualización 2022 [Nationally Determined Contribution: Update 2022]” (Gobierno de México, 2022). ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “Mexico. December 2022,” Climate Analytics, NewClimate Institute, 2022 ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “Mexico. December 2022.” ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “Mexico. December 2022.” ↩
SEMARNAT and Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático, “Mexico’s Climate Change Mid-Century Strategy,” 2016. ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “Mexico. December 2022.” ↩
SEMARNAT and Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático, “Inventario Nacional de Emisiones de Gases y Compuestos de Efecto Invernadero 1990 - 2019 [National Greenhouse Gas and Compound Emissions Inventory 1990 - 2019],” 2021 ↩

What is Mexico's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Raising ambition

Mexico's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Mexico's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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