What is Mexico's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Decarbonising the industry sector
Mexico’s industry sector, excluding the domestic fossil fuel industry, was responsible for 18% of economy-wide emissions in 2022, primarily due to the cement and iron & steel industries. This share was split fairly equally between energy use and industrial processes. Full decarbonisation would need to take place between 2042–2047 if the sector is to align with the Paris Agreement.
Mexico's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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The Minimal CDR Reliance pathway sees a reduction in the share of fossil fuels in the industrial energy mix from nearly half in 2022 to 9% in 2040 due to an increase in electrification (62% by 2040) and the deployment of biogas and biofuel, allowing the sector to reach full decarbonisation around 2045.1
The Net Zero Commitments pathway is influenced by strong energy efficiency measures and optimal carbon pricing. Following this pathway would see emissions halved by 2030 and fall by 80% by 2050, compared to 2021 levels. Hydrogen would play a larger role (13% by 2050). Hydrogen, solid biomass and electrification would collectively reach an 87% share of the mix by 2050.
Building on Mexico’s current carbon price and emissions trading scheme (ETS) with improved pricing and feebates would support further decarbonisation of the sector and maintain Mexico’s global competitiveness.2,3,4
Mexico’s process-related emissions mainly come from cement, iron and steel, glass, and lime production.5 While these process emissions are hard to abate, all pathways show emissions cuts of around 50% by 2035 compared to 2021 levels due to improvements in production processes and/or modifying final products. For instance, Mexico is one of the largest cement producers in the world. Improving energy efficiency and clinker-cement ratios can substantially cut emissions, in line with recommendations from the National Cement Chamber.6
Mexico’s domestic fossil fuel industry is not assessed here, but it contributes 13% of economy-wide emissions. Cutting emissions from fossil fuel production will thus be critical to achieving 1.5°C.
Mexico's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Mexico's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Mexico
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Industry sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
55
|
25 to
45
|
20 to
34
|
11 to
19
|
-4 to
13
|
2042 to
2047
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-55 to
-18%
|
-64 to
-38%
|
-80 to
-65%
|
-107 to
-76%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
48
|
48 to
59
|
53 to
61
|
61 to
62
|
60 to
67
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass
%
|
52
|
63 to
70
|
75 to
76
|
80 to
91
|
87 to
100
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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