What is Mexico's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Buildings
Decarbonising the building sector
In 2021, the energy mix in Mexico’s buildings sector was primarily split between oil (36%), electricity (34%) and biomass (26%). Aligning with 1.5°C would see electrification increasingly replace oil’s share in the mix.
Mexico's energy mix in the buildings sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the buildings sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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The Deep Electrification pathway sees the most significant electrification of the sector, with electricity generation doubling by 2030 compared to 2021 levels and more than quadrupling by 2050. Although the share of electricity in the mix is not much higher than in other pathways, the total electricity demand is. This would likely be due to rapidly declining renewables costs which enable a faster scale-up of capacity, which are a core feature of this pathway. Given lower costs, following this pathway would allow Mexico to focus more heavily on a renewables rollout over energy efficiency measures, leading to fossil fuels mostly phased out of the mix by 2050.
Other pathways see stronger energy efficiency measures to meet 1.5°C. The Minimal CDR Reliance and Net Zero Commitments pathways see final energy demand rise by only 16-25% by 2050. Mexico’s buildings have high technical potential for energy efficiency through retrofitting and green buildings standards which reduce pressure on the grid and lower consumers’ electricity bills.1,2
Mexico's buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the buildings sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and biomass in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Mexico
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Buildings sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
23
|
17 to
19
|
11 to
15
|
5 to
7
|
0 to
3
|
2040 to
2043
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-26 to
-17%
|
-52 to
-35%
|
-78 to
-70%
|
-100 to
-87%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
34
|
56 to
58
|
68 to
69
|
77 to
82
|
81 to
88
|
|
Share of heat
%
|
2
|
5 to
6
|
6 to
7
|
6 to
8
|
6 to
10
|
|
Share of hydrogen
%
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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