What is Mexico's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

The Deep Electrification pathway sees the most significant electrification of the sector, with electricity use doubling by 2030 compared to 2021 levels and more than quadrupling by 2050. Although the share of electricity in the mix is not much higher than in other pathways, the total electricity demand is. This would likely be due to rapidly declining renewables costs which enable a faster scale-up of capacity, which are a core feature of this pathway. Given lower costs, following this pathway would allow Mexico to focus more heavily on a renewables rollout over energy efficiency measures, leading to fossil fuels mostly phased out of the mix by 2050.

In combination with electrification, Mexico can reduce emissions by focusing on improving energy efficiency in buildings. Buildings have high technical potential for energy efficiency through retrofitting and green buildings standards which reduce pressure on the grid and lower consumers’ electricity bills. The Net Zero Commitments pathway sees electrification reach 56% in 2030 and 88% in 2050, similar to the shares achieved in the Deep Electrification pathway. However, energy demand is significantly lower in the Net Zero Commitments pathway compared to the Deep Electrification one. This can be achieved by a strong focus on improving energy efficiency.