Myanmar

Last update: 1 June 2022

Economy wide

In order to be 1.5°C compatible, Myanmar would need to reduce emissions by 28-49%, excl. LULUCF, from 2015 levels. This is in stark contrast to the country’s NDC targets and the increase in emissions seen in recent years of around 23% above 2015 levels. Myanmar would however need international support to implement mitigation measures that would close the gap between its fair share and its 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway.

Myanmar's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

2030 NDC

Myanmar’s updated NDC, submitted to the UNFCCC in July 2021, includes a cumulative emission reductions target, of 121 MtCO₂e (unconditional) and 158 MtCO₂e (conditional) over the period 2021-2030 (cumulative), below BAU when excluding LULUCF.¹ Compared to 2015 levels, this target translates to a 23% (unconditional) to 13% (conditional) increase in emissions, excl. LULUCF, above 2015 levels by 2030.² The planned measures will primarily come from the power sector and are benchmarked against a BAU scenario.³

2050 Ambition

As of May 2022, Myanmar has not yet submitted a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC. Under analysed 1.5°C compatible pathways, the country could see GHG emissions reductions, excl. LULUCF, of around 71% below 2015 levels by 2050.⁴

Net zero

Over the long term, the use of land-based sinks will be an important aspect of Myanmar’s pathway to net zero emissions. LULUCF, the leading source of emissions in the country (followed by agriculture), will be key in its climate efforts, and would require the implementation of ambitious policies that would drive emission reductions .

Sectors

Power

For Myanmar’s emissions trajectory to be Paris Agreement-aligned, the country would need to decarbonise its power sector. As of 2019, fossil fuels account for just over half of the power mix, having increased over five times between 2010-2019. The rest is covered by renewables, mostly hydro.
Myanmar’s updated NDC includes a target for renewables, including hydro, to account for 39% (unconditional) to 48% (conditional) of the power mix in 2030. However, 1.5°C compatibility would necessitate a much greater share of renewables (around 91-92%) by that year.
The country’s updated NDC has coal accounting for 11-20% of the 2030 power mix, and LNG for 33%, putting the country at risk of locking itself in a carbon intensive pathway. 1.5°C compatible pathways require coal to be phased out by 2030 and gas by mid-2040s. Emissions from the power sector would need to reach net zero between 2035-2036.

Buildings

Myanmar’s buildings sector gets most of its energy (residential and commercial) from biomass with electricity and oil providing smaller shares. Only 66% of the population has access to electricity and 28% to clean cooking.
Emissions from energy demands in the building sector grew by 246% between 2015 and 2019. This reflects the increasing share of oil in the sector’s final energy consumption.
1.5°C compatible pathways see the building sector rapidly electrifying. Electricity’s share in the final energy consumption increases from 9% in 2019 to between 34-81% in 2030 and between 81-96% by 2050.

Transport

Urbanisation and growth of GDP per capita in Myanmar have resulted in an increased motorisation rate. Direct emissions from the transport sector increased from 4 to 6 MtCO₂/yr between 2007 and 2019 (a 42% increase).
While Myanmar makes no mitigation commitments for the transport sector in its NDC, the government does acknowledge the GHG reduction benefit of investing in public transportation infrastructure and the need to end the use of fossil fuel vehicles by 2035 or earlier.
1.5°C compatible pathways see the transportation sector’s energy mix undergoing significant changes. By 2050, electricity could meet close to 40% of the sector’s energy needs. Hydrogen could also play a significant role. Direct carbon emissions from transport would decline by 42-43% by 2030 and Myanmar could achieve a decarbonised transportation sector by around 2056.

Industry

In 2019, Myanmar’s industrial sector got 59% of its energy from oil and 17% from electricity. Oil consumption increased 10-fold between 2010 and 2019.
As part of its NDC, Myanmar has put forth the goal of around 7% reduction, relative to 2012, in industrial energy consumption. While energy efficiency is important, electrification of the sector through a decarbonised, renewable power system will also be required for the country to be Paris Agreement compatible.
1.5°C compatible pathways see an increased use of electricity in the industrial sector, reaching about a third of final consumption by 2050. Energy related industrial emissions would reach net zero around 2050.

Both the State Administration Council (SAC), the military junta currently governing Myanmar, and the National Unity Government (NUG), the government in exile, submitted NDCs in July 2021. Both documents are nearly identical. The SAC aims to achieve a conditional target for total emissions reduction of 415 MtCO₂e (including LULUCF) over the period 2021 to 2030 (with an unconditional target of 245 MtCO₂e reduction). The NUG aims for 413 MtCO₂e reduction conditionally, 244 MtCO₂e reduction unconditionally, both including LULUCF and over the period 2021-2030.[^5] In this profile, we analyse the NDC officially submitted to the UNFCCC. ↩
See assumptions and calculations here ↩
The Republic of the Union of Myanmar. Nationally Determined Contributions. (2021). ↩
Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account. ↩

What is Myanmar's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?