Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

Myanmar’s updated NDC, submitted to the UNFCCC in July 2021, includes a cumulative emission reductions target, of 121 MtCO₂e (unconditional) and 158 MtCO₂e (conditional) over the period 2021-2030 (cumulative), below BAU when excluding LULUCF.¹ Compared to 2015 levels, this target translates to a 22% (unconditional) to 13% (conditional) increase in emissions, excl. LULUCF, above 2015 levels by 2030.² The planned measures will primarily come from the power sector and are benchmarked against a BAU scenario.³

Under 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways, Myanmar’s GHG emissions, excl. LULUCF would need to decrease by 28-49% from 2015 levels by 2030. In absolute terms, this would be a reduction from 60 MtCO₂e/yr in 2015 to between 31-43 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030 (excluding LULUCF). It would require that the most rapid rate of emissions reduction occur in the decade up to 2030. Myanmar would however need international support to implement mitigation measures that would close the gap between its fair share and its 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway.

The range of 1.5°C compatible pathways suggest a cumulative emissions reduction, excluding LULUCF, between 292-385 MtCO₂e from the NDC BAU scenario would be required between 2021 and 2030. Myanmar’s NDC targets would see cumulative non-LULUCF emissions reductions of 121 MtCO₂e (unconditional) or 158 MtCO₂e (conditional) during this time period. This is an ambition gap of at least 135 MtCO₂e.⁴

Myanmar's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long term pathway

As of May 2022, Myanmar has not yet submitted a long-term strategy to the Paris Agreement. Under analysed 1.5°C compatible pathways, the country could see GHG emissions reductions, excl. LULUCF, of around 71% below 2015 levels by 2050.

1.5°C compatible pathways are characterised by an immediate decline in the use of fossil fuels, with primary energy from unabated coal, oil, and gas halving by the 2030s, and halving again by 2050.⁵ While some models see a significant development of Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), these might be overestimating the potential of this costly and not yet proven technology.⁶

Myanmar’s NDC assumes that emissions from the LULUCF sector will follow the estimated average annual levels during the period 2005-2015 for the next two decades. By 2030, LULUCF emissions decline by 49% and 94%, relative to BAU, and go negative by 2037 and 2031, under the unconditional and conditional scenarios respectively. It should be noted however that the FAO has estimated the country’s LULUCF emissions to be more than double the country’s reported LULUCF emissions in 2019.

Myanmar’s agricultural sector has historically been the largest source of non-LULUCF GHG emissions. The 1.5°C pathways forecast that this will remain the case in 2050, even though the pathways see emissions from this sector decreasing by 30-70% below 2015 levels.

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

Myanmar’s carbon emissions have grown from 16-25 MtCO₂/yr between 2015 and 2019, an increase of 52%. In contrast, under the 1.5°C pathways analysed here, Myanmar’s CO₂ emissions, excl. LULUCF, would decrease between 36-54% by 2030, and reach net zero CO2₂ between 2048-2063.

The energy sector is the country’s largest source of carbon emissions, aside from LULUCF, and energy related emissions have been growing rapidly in the last decade.⁷ Currently, Myanmar’s primary energy mix is composed mainly of biomass and oil. As of 2019, these two sources accounted for 46% and 30% of the total, respectively. In line with the increase in energy-related emissions, oil’s share in the energy mix has been growing rapidly in the last decade.⁸

Electrification of end uses is seen as a key driver for decarbonising the energy sector of South and South East Asian countries including Myanmar.⁹ This electrification will in turn affect the emissions intensities of the industrial, transportation, and buildings sectors. Myanmar’s government has put particular emphasis on electrifying the buildings sector through their ongoing National Electrification Project.¹⁰^,¹¹

In recent years the country has been slowly increasing the share of electricity in final energy consumption (from 4% in 2010 to 8% in 2019). The analysed pathways forecast that, at the median level, for the building, industrial, and transportation sectors, the share of electricity in final energy consumption will increase to 15% by 2030 and 49% by 2050.

Electrification of end use sectors would have to be done through renewable power generation. As such, the 1.5°C pathways see non-bio renewables accounting for 77% of all power generation by 2030 and almost 100% by 2040.

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Myanmar. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	2015 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	60	73	38 31 to 43	24 22 to 28	17 16 to 22
Relative to reference year in %			-37% -49 to -28%	-59% -64 to -53%	-71% -73 to -64%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	16	25	9 8 to 10	3 2 to 4	0 -1 to 1	2055 2048 to 2063
Relative to reference year in %			-45% -54 to -36%	-80% -90 to -73%	-98% -104 to -92%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.
- Download data as CSV

Both the State Administration Council (SAC), the military junta currently governing Myanmar, and the National Unity Government (NUG), the government in exile, submitted NDCs in July 2021. Both documents are nearly identical. The SAC aims to achieve a conditional target for total emissions reduction of 415 MtCO₂e (including LULUCF) over the period 2021 to 2030 (with an unconditional target of 245 MtCO₂e reduction). The NUG aims for 413 MtCO₂e reduction conditionally, 244 MtCO₂e reduction unconditionally, both including LULUCF and over the period 2021-2030.[^12] In this profile, we analyse the NDC officially submitted to the UNFCCC. ↩
See assumptions and calculations here ↩
The Republic of the Union of Myanmar. Nationally Determined Contributions. (2021). ↩
This being the difference between cumulative reductions (2021-2030) under the higher bound of the 1.5ºC compatible range and the that under the conditional NDC. Using the lower bound of the 1.5°C compatible range and the unconditional NDC, the gap would be 265 MtCO₂e. ↩
Unabated fossil fuels supplied 498 PJ/yr in 2019, around half of the country’s TPES that year. The other half was supplied by variable and conventional renewables. Of renewable energy, around 90% is from hydropower.[^13] Under the median of the 1.5°C pathways, unabated fossil fuels energy supply 232 PJ/yr in 2035 and 111 in PJ/yr. While unabated fossil fuels share in TPES would drop only slightly by 2030 (to 45%), by 2050 their share would drop to 13%. Note that unabated fossil fuel supply has increased drastically between 2015 and 2019. In 2015, they supplied 285 PJ/yr and contribute a 36% share to TPES. The increase is largely driven by a greater supply of oil. See the IEA’s Myanmar country page for further details. ↩
Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account. ↩
Energy-related GHG emissions increased from 9.4 MtCO₂e/yr in 2010 to 23.6 MtCO₂e/yr in 2019, an increase of 150%. ↩
Oil’s contribution to primary energy increased from 54 PJ/yr in 2010 to 295 PJ/yr in 2019. Its share in the energy mix grew from 9% to 30% over this period. ↩
Climate Analytics. Decarbonising South and South East Asia. (2019). ↩
MOEE. NEP Plan. The Republic of the Union of Myanmar Ministry of Electricity and Energy. (2022). ↩
IEA. Myanmar National Electrification Project (NEP). IEA/IRENA Renewables Policies Database. (2017). ↩

What is Myanmar's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Myanmar's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Myanmar's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

Myanmar's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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