What is Myanmar's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Historically, based on FAO data, the LULUCF sector has been the largest source of GHG emissions in Myanmar. Over the past decades, these emissions have decreased somewhat and were 28% lower in 2019 than in 1990.1 While LULUCF emissions reported in Myanmar’s NDC differ from the FAO LULUCF emissions, the sector remains the biggest source of emissions in Myanmar.2 However, those from other sectors have steadily increased so that they were more than double their 1990 levels in 2015 and rose a further 23% between then and 2019. As a consequence, while total GHG emissions in 2019 were nearly the same as in 1990, the share of non-LULUCF GHG emissions have increased from around 16% in 1990 to 40% in 2019.
Myanmar has expansive forests covering more than 60% of its territory. However, the country is ranked as one of the top ten in the world for tree cover loss.3 The dominant driver of LULUCF emissions is commodity-driven deforestation.4 As stated in the NDC, due to deforestation forecasts under a BAU, Myanmar’s LULUCF emissions will remain at a level of around 50 MtCO₂e p.a. in the decade to 2030. The unconditional NDC target seeks to reduce the annual deforestation rate, and thus annual emissions from this sector, by 50% by 2030, and this is in line with the country’s national REDD+ strategy.
Myanmar’s non-LULUCF GHG emissions are mostly due to agricultural activities. In 2019, of the 73 MtCO₂e emitted by the country (excluding LULUCF), the agricultural sector accounted for 57%, of total emissions while the energy and waste sectors accounted for 32% and 8% respectively. Breaking down emissions by gas, CH₄ accounted for 57%, CO₂ 34%, and N₂O 9%, of total GHG excl. LULUCF.
While fuel combustion in the energy sector generated 94% of CO₂ emissions, CH₄ was mostly due to agriculture (88%) and waste (11%), and likewise N₂O (76% and 15% due to agriculture and waste respectively).
Emissions from agriculture have been growing steadily around 1.8% p.a. since 2010. The primary drivers of Myanmar’s agricultural emissions are rice cultivation and enteric fermentation. The NDC, citing statistics from the FAO, puts these as contributing 12% and 9%, respectively, to the country’s total GHG emissions in 2013.5
Emissions from energy and industry have grown at a greater rate, and experienced greater volatility than other sectors, particularly since 2010. Energy sector emissions experienced an upward annual trend of 13.6% between 2010 and 2017, while that for industrial emissions has been 16.6%.
Myanmar's current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. LULUCF emissions from Myanmar NDC (2021) from year 2015. - Source: PRIMAP 2021 and IEA GHG FUEL 2021 for combustion sector breakdown
Data References
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Energy system
In the energy sector, the sharp increase in emissions since 2011 appears to be primarily driven by a concurrent increase in the amount of oil in total primary energy supply. This fuel has accounted for 63% of the total 62% increase in primary energy observed between 2011 and 2017. Natural gas has accounted for 25% of the growth over this period.
Trade in these fossil fuels is also a significant economic driver for the country, with natural gas rents accounting for, on average, 2.24% of annual GDP between 2010 and 2019. Oil rents have fallen from a high of 2.7% of GDP in 2006 to 0.2% in 2019.6 The political conflict in the country, which began in early 2021, has resulted in the government being excluded from international climate negotiations.7 Moreover, the EU has recently expanded their ongoing sanctions against the government to include the state owned oil and gas company.8 This has followed the withdrawal of major energy companies that were previously operating in the country.9 As such, China, which continues to develop gas export and power generation projects in Myanmar, will likely play an increasingly large role in Myanmar’s energy development.10
Myanmar’s primary energy has historically been dominated by biomass (biofuels and waste). Between 1990 and 2010, biomass accounted for, on average, 75% of the annual primary energy supply, although this dropped below 70% between 2004 and 2008 due to an increase in natural gas use. More recent, and significant, has been the rapid increase in oil use. Oil’s share in annual primary energy supply has increased from a historical average of around 11% (1990-2010) to 29% in 2017. Consequently, biomass’ share of TPES has dropped to 48%.
Myanmar’s NDC sets forth targets for the country’s power sector. Total capacity is forecast to increase by three to four times by 2030 under the BAU and two NDC scenarios respectively. Under the BAU, coal will account for the largest share of new capacity, followed by hydropower. While the NDC scenarios have coal playing a lesser role, natural gas will gain importance, accounting for 25% of new capacity. It is only under the conditional NDC that renewables account for the largest share of new capacity (48%), including a large deployment of wind and solar.
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
Baseline scenario target
NDC target
Unconditional NDC Target:
- Cumulative reduction from a BAU scenario over the period 2021-2030 of 244 MtCO₂e, including LULUCF.
- We assess that this translates to a 22% increase in emissions (excl. LULUCF) between 2015 and 2030.
Conditional NDC Target:
- Cumulative reduction from a BAU scenario over the period 2021-2030 of 415 MtCO₂e, including LULUCF.
- We assess that this translates to a 13% increase in emissions (excl. LULUCF) between 2015 and 2030.
Sectoral targets
Energy
- Conditional energy efficiency target: reduce energy consumption by 20% from 2012 baseline by 2030. This is estimated to result in a cumulative reduction (2021-2030) of 0.133 MtCO₂e from BAU. This target mainly covers the industrial, commercial, and residential sectors.11
- Energy efficiency for cook-stoves: distribute approximately 5.1 million cook-stoves between 2018 and 2030. This will result in a cumulative reduction (2021-2030) of 12.99 MtCO₂e. However, only 21% of this will go towards Myanmar’s NDC target, the rest subject to carbon offsetting.12
- Fuel switching in cooking: government will support the replacement of traditional cook-stoves by LPG for 1 million households. This is anticipated to result in a cumulative reduction (2021-2030) of 14.94 MtCO₂e.13
Power
- Unconditional target of 7.16 GW of renewable electricity (5.16 from hydro) by 2030. Conditional target of 8.75 GW renewables (5.68 from hydro).14
- Rural electrification: 45% (unconditional target) to 60% (conditional target) of rural off-grid population to gain access to renewable electricity. This is estimated to result in a cumulative reduction (2021-2030) of 0.719 MtCO₂e (unconditional target) to 0.874 MtCO₂e (conditional target).15
- A cumulative reduction of power sector emissions of 35% (unconditional) and 48% (conditional) from BAU between 2021-2035.
Agriculture
- Conditional target to increase tree canopy cover across 275,000 ha of agricultural land with current tree cover of < 10% per ha. This is expected to result in a cumulative CO₂ sequestration of 10.4 Mt (2021-2030).16
LULUCF
- Unconditional target to steadily reduce net emissions from forestry as to achieve cumulative reduction from BAU baseline of 25% (2021-2030) and 58% (2021-2040).
- Conditional target to steadily reduce net emissions from forestry as to achieve cumulative reduction from BAU baseline of 51% (2021-2030) and 102% (2021-2040). The latter would imply that Myanmar realizes a cumulative sink rather than source in forestry over said time line.