Transport

Urbanisation and growth in GDP per capita in Myanmar have resulted in an increased motorisation rate.¹ This is particularly evident in the major metropolitan areas of Yangon and Mandalay.² Yangon, once a city of busses, has seen a substantial increase in passenger vehicles and motorcycles.³ Similarly, Mandalay, once a city of bicycles, has seen motorcycles become the dominant form of transport.⁴ With this has come an increase in direct emissions from the transport sector, increasing from 4.5 to 6.3 MtCO₂/yr between 2007 and 2019.⁵

Graph description

Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling the energy mix in the final energy demand sectors
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

While Myanmar makes no mitigation commitments for the transport sector in their NDC, the government does acknowledge the GHG reduction benefit of investing in public transportation infrastructure and the need to end the use of fossil fuel vehicles by 2035 or earlier. On the latter, they claim to have already phased out 200,000 old, highly inefficient vehicles.⁶ Nonetheless, the 2015 Master Energy Plan sees transport energy consumption more than doubling between 2012 and 2030 and continuing to rely almost entirely on petrol and diesel.⁷^,⁸

In contrast, 1.5°C compatible pathways see the transportation sector’s energy mix undergoing significant changes driven by an electrification of the sector, up to 7% by 2030. By 2050, electricity could meet close to 40% of the sector’s energy needs. Some models see a high deployment of hydrogen and this fuel could play a significant role by 2050. As a result, direct carbon emissions from transport, 6 MtCO₂/yr in 2019, would decline by 42-43% by 2030 and Myanmar could achieve a decarbonised transportation sector by 2056.

Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).

Graph description

Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling power carbon intensity
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021
- Historical energy emissions : IEA GHG emissions from Energy database 2021

Indicator	2019	2030	2040	2050	Decarbonised transport sector by
Direct CO₂ emissions MtCO₂/yr	6	4 to 4	2 to 3	0 to 3
Relative to reference year in %		-43 to -42%	-72 to -51%	-93 to -58%

Indicator	2030	2040	2050
Share of electricity per cent	1 to 7	7 to 14	12 to 39
Share of biofuels per cent	0 to 0	0 to 1	0 to 2
Share of hydrogen per cent	1 to 18	23 to 52	43 to 66

All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.

Myanmar’s 2015 Energy Master Plan notes the linear relationship between motorisation and GDP/capita and anticipates that this relationship will hold through the planning period out to 2035.[^9] ↩
The World Bank. Urban Transport in Yangon and Mandalay: Review of Sector Institutions, Expenditures, and Funding. (2020). ↩
According to the Department of Road Transport Administration, between 2010 and 2019, the number of registered vehicles in the city increased from 261 thousand to 913 thousand. Motorcycles accounted for 46% of this increase while cars accounted for 28%. Busses, on the other hand, only accounted for 1% of the increase. ↩
Asian Development Bank. Myanmar Transport Sector Policy Note - Urban Transport. (2016). ↩
Note that transport sector emissions saw a sharp decline in 2008 likely due to the devastation caused by tropical cyclone Nargis. The increasing frequency of such events has made Myanmar one of the most highly impacted countries by climate change.[^10]^,[^11] ↩
The Republic of the Union of Myanmar. Nationally Determined Contributions. (2021). ↩
The Republic of the Union of Myanmar. Myanmar Energy Master Plan. (2015). ↩
A more recent report by the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia also forecasts transport energy consumption to more than double between 2016 and 2040 and continue to rely heavily on oil products, but with natural gas playing a more prominent role.[^12] ↩

What is Myanmar's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Myanmar's energy mix in the transport sector

petajoule per year

Myanmar's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)

MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks

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