What is Myanmar's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Buildings

Last update: 1 June 2022

Myanmar’s residential sector has consistently accounted for the largest part of the country’s total final energy consumption. Biomass accounts for the vast majority of final energy supply in the building sector (residential and commercial) with electricity and oil providing smaller shares.1 As such, Myanmar’s population has relatively low access to electricity (66%) and clean cooking (28%).2 The government has taken steps towards increasing electricity access, particularly in rural communities, through the on-going National Electrification Plan.3 The goal of this plan is to reach a 100% electrification rate for households by 2030.4,5 As stated in the country’s NDC, a significant portion of this electrification will come as the result of mini-grids and solar home systems. Moreover, the NDC has set targets to distribute fuel efficient cookstoves which will result in an estimated 28 MtCO₂e of avoided emissions over the period 2021-2030.6

Myanmar's energy mix in the buildings sector

petajoule per year

Scaling

As is the case with the country’s total emissions, those of the building sector have increased substantially since 2015. Emissions from energy demands in the building sector grew from 6 ktCO₂/yr in 2015 to 1 MtCO₂/yr in 2019, an increase of 246%. This reflects the changes in the energy mix with oil accounting for an increasing share of the sector’s final energy.7 This has led to increased emissions intensity from the sector’s energy demands, from 0.01 to 2.97 gCO₂/MJ between 2015 and 2019. Although the government has not set explicit emissions reductions targets for the buildings sector in its NDC, they have set conditional energy efficiency targets, 7.8% and 4% improvements by 2030 from 2012 levels for the residential and commercial sectors respectively.8

1.5°C compatible pathways see the building sector rapidly electrifying. Electricity’s share in final energy supply increases from 9% in 2019 to between 34-81% by 2030 and between 81-96% by 2050. Taken together with the increased share of renewables, and consequent decreased emissions intensity, in the power sector, emissions from energy demands in the building sector will fall to 0.52-0.56 MtCO₂/yr by 2050 (a decrease of 62-64% from 2019 levels).

Myanmar's buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)

MtCO₂/yr

Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).

1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks

Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and hydrogen in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Myanmar

Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
1
1 to 2
1 to 1
1 to 1
Relative to reference year in %
-34 to 11%
-32 to -28%
-64 to -62%
Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Share of electricity
per cent
9
34 to 81
52 to 94
81 to 96
Share of heat
per cent
0
0 to 0
1 to 1
0 to 3
Share of hydrogen
per cent
0
0 to 3
0 to 12
0 to 10

All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.

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