What is South Africa's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
South Africa
South Africa’s NDC emissions reduction target narrowly aligns with 1.5°C, if highest ambition is met
To be 1.5°C compatible, South Africa’s emissions need to fall by 26-72% below 2010 levels by 2030 (excluding land use and forestry). The more ambitious end of South Africa’s NDC target is narrowly aligned with 1.5°C, while the upper end is not. Under current policies, South Africa will not achieve this target.
South Africa's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C would see coal phased out of power generation in the 2030s
Coal dominates South Africa’s power sector, supplying 87% of electricity generation in 2021. Under 1.5°C compatible pathways, coal would be phased out between 2030 and 2035. However, South Africa’s draft energy plan proposes delaying the decommissioning of some coal plants.
Renewable targets in energy plan not aligned with 1.5°C
South Africa’s 2023 draft energy plan envisions an estimated 22% renewables in the power system by 2030, down from 33% in the 2019 plan. This is well short of the 75-93% required under a 1.5°C compatible pathway. While market signals such as record-breaking imports of solar components in 2023 indicate a more rapid deployment of renewables is underway, stronger targets are needed to guide policy and drive ambition.