Ambition Gap

Raising ambition

To be 1.5°C compatible, South Africa’s emissions would need to fall to 26-72% below 2010 levels (excl. LULUCF), or to 148-397 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030.¹ The lower end of South Africa’s NDC target, excluding LULUCF, falls into the upper end of this range, as shown in the graph below. However, the upper end of South Africa’s NDC target is not 1.5°C compatible. The country would therefore need to aim for the more ambitious end of its NDC in order to align with 1.5°C pathways.

Under current policies, South Africa is not on track to achieve its NDC target, indicating there is still a need to strengthen policies and actively put them into effect.²

South Africa’s NDC does highlight the need for financial support to implement its target.³ Sufficient international support is necessary to enable South Africa to implement its domestic emissions pathway.

South Africa's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References
- Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2023

Long term pathway

South Africa has expressed its intent to reach net zero by 2050, though the details and scope of this goal are unclear. South Africa’s Low Emissions Development Strategy 2050, released in 2020, includes the goal of moving towards net zero carbon emissions by 2050,⁴ while the Just Transition Framework refers to reaching “net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050”.⁵

Under 1.5°C compatible pathways, South Africa would need to limit GHG emissions to 59-116 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050 excluding LULUCF, equivalent to 78-89% below 2010 levels. CO₂ emissions would need to reach between -42 and 33 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF to be 1.5°C compatible.

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2023. Last inventory year: 2021.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for South Africa. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	2015 Reference year	2021	2030	2035	2040	2050
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	527	484	148 to 397	92 to 353	76 to 254	59 to 116
Relative to reference year in %			-72 to -25%	-83 to -33%	-86 to -52%	-89 to -78%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	442	407	99 to 153	49 to 110	-7 to 92	-42 to 33
Relative to reference year in %			-78 to -65%	-89 to -75%	-102 to -79%	-110 to -93%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2023
- Download data as CSV

Climate Action Tracker, “South Africa. November 2023.,” 2023, ; Republic of South Africa, “South Africa’s First NDC, 2020/21 Update” (Republic of South Africa, 2021), https://www.climatecommission.org.za/publications/south-africas-ndc-targets-for-2025-and-2030 ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “South Africa. November 2023.” ↩
Republic of South Africa, “South Africa’s First NDC, 2020/21 Update.” ↩
Department of Environmental Affairs, “South Africa’s Low Emission Development Strategy 2050” (Republic of South Africa, 2020) ↩
Presidential Climate Commission, “A Framework for a Just Transition in South Africa,” July 2022 ↩

What is South Africa's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Raising ambition

South Africa's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

South Africa's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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