Current Situation

Last update: 28 May 2024

Emissions profile

South Africa’s emissions have generally fallen since 2009;¹ however, it remains the largest emitter in Africa.² Given the country’s high reliance on fossil fuels, the energy sector is the main source of emissions, accounting for 80% of emissions in 2020.³

The power sector, heavily reliant on coal, accounts for over half of energy sector emissions. Industrial energy demand and fugitive emissions, largely from coal-to-liquids plants, are also major contributors to energy emissions.

According to South Africa’s National GHG Inventory Report (2000-2020), the land use sector is a net sink of emissions, equivalent to 5% of total emissions.⁴

South Africa is in the process of passing the Climate Change Bill that, if legislated, would make its Nationally Determined Contribution legally binding, require the government to set sectoral emission targets, and allocate carbon budgets to major emitting companies.⁵

Graph description

Historical emissions per gas and per sector.

Data References
- National GHG Inventory Report: South Africa 2000-2020

Energy overview and main policy gaps

South Africa’s primary energy supply is dominated by fossil fuels, with coal alone supplying 70% in 2021.⁶ Oil, which is largely imported, makes up the next largest share.⁷ Despite a rapid increase in renewables driven by early rounds of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme,⁸ the proportion of renewables in the overall energy mix remains small (6%) and is dominated by biomass use, trailed by solar.⁹

South Africa’s power sector has struggled to meet demand. The public utility, Eskom, has had to resort to load-shedding for over a decade, reaching record levels in 2023.¹⁰ The sector relies on an ageing coal fleet for the majority of generation, 87% in 2021, with the remaining demand split mostly between nuclear and renewables.¹¹

At COP26, South Africa entered into a Just Energy Transition Partnership with a group of donor countries which resolved to mobilise finance for the transformation of the energy system, with a strong focus on power sector decarbonisation and protections for vulnerable communities.¹² However, its draft energy plan proposes to delay the decommissioning of some coal plants by as much as ten years.¹³

Targets and commitments

NDC target:

As expressed by the country:
A medium-term goal of 398-510 MtCO₂e/yr GHG (incl. LULUCF) between 2020 and 2025.¹⁴^,¹⁵
350-420 MtCO₂e/yr GHG (incl. LULUCF) between 2025 and 2030.
South Africa’s NDC assumes the provision of support for its implementation
Re-expressed excluding LULUCF:
367-437 MtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF) or 19-32% below 2010 by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).¹⁶

Sector Coverage:

Agriculture, Waste, Industry (processes), Energy, LULUCF

Long-term Target:

South Africa’s 2020 Low Emissions Development Strategy includes the goal of reaching “net zero carbon emissions” by 2050,¹⁷ while the Just Transition Framework refers to reaching “net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050”.¹⁸

Climate Action Tracker, “South Africa. November 2023.,” 2023 ↩
Johannes Gütschow and Mika Pflüger, “The PRIMAP-Hist National Historical Emissions Time Series (1750-2021) v2.4.2” (zenodo, March 2023) ↩
Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment, “National Inventory Report for South Africa: 2000 - 2020” (Republic of South Africa, 2023) ↩
Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment, “National Inventory Report for South Africa: 2000 - 2020.” ↩
Centre for Environmental Rights, “The Life After Coal Campaign Welcomes Progress on the Climate Change Bill but More Needs to Be Done,” 2023 ↩
IEA, “World Energy Balances 2023” (IEA, 2023) ↩
Department of Mineral Resources and Energy, “South African Energy Sector Report 2022” (Pretoria, South Africa, 2022) ↩
Eberhard, A. and Naude, R., “The South African Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme: A Review and Lessons Learned.,” Journal of Energy in Southern Africa 27, no. 4 (2016): 1–14 ↩
IRENA, “Energy Profile: South Africa” (IRENA, 2023) ↩
Mariel Ferragamo, “Will South Africa’s Power Crisis Sink Its Green Ambitions?,” Council on Foreign Relations, July 20, 2023 ↩
IEA, “World Energy Balances 2023.” ↩
Government of South Africa, “Presidency on International Partnership to Support a Just Transition to a Low Carbon Economy and a Climate Resilient Society,” 2021 ↩
Department of Mineral Resources and Energy, “Publication for Comments: Integrated Resource Plan, 2023,” Government Gazette, January 4, 2024 ↩
Republic of South Africa, “South Africa’s First NDC, 2020/21 Update” (Republic of South Africa, 2021) ↩
Note that the NDC states that “net GHG emissions [are] as specified in the national inventory report for 2025, including all sectors, and excluding emissions from natural disturbances in the land sector.” ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “South Africa. November 2023.” ↩
Department of Environmental Affairs, “South Africa’s Low Emission Development Strategy 2050” (Republic of South Africa, 2020) ↩
Presidential Climate Commission, “A Framework for a Just Transition in South Africa,” July 2022 ↩

What is South Africa's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Emissions profile

South Africa's 2020 GHG emissions

including LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Energy overview and main policy gaps

Targets and commitments

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