What is South Africa's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Decarbonising the transport sector
South Africa relies heavily on road transport to move both passengers and freight within the country, resulting in the transport sector producing 13% of the country’s total CO₂ emissions in 2020.1 In 2020, 93% of the sector’s emissions were produced by road transport, heavily dependent on fossil fuel-derived liquid fuels. Electric vehicle sales as a percentage of new car sales were just 0.2% in 2022.2,3
South Africa's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Across all analysed pathways, South Africa’s direct CO2 emissions in transport peak between the mid-2030s to the mid-2040s, as demand stabilises, and electrification ramps up in the 2030s. The Deep Electrification pathway sees the highest increase in electricity in the transport sector, from 1% in 2021 to 64% by 2040, with nearly full electrification by 2050 at 93%.
To achieve a 1.5°C compatible pathway, the transport sector’s CO2 emissions would need to decline by up to 93% from 2021 levels by 2050. However, the Department of Transport has only committed to a 5% GHG emissions reduction from the transport sector by 20504 and the sector remains the fastest growing emissions source in South Africa, rebounding in 2021 as COVID restrictions eased.5
South Africa's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for South Africa
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
48
|
60 to
70
|
44 to
71
|
29 to
66
|
5 to
43
|
2051 to
2058
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
25 to
46%
|
-8 to
48%
|
-40 to
38%
|
-90 to
-10%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
1
|
2 to
12
|
5 to
39
|
9 to
64
|
26 to
93
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
5
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
1
|
1 to
2
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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