What is South Africa's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Decarbonising the industry sector
The industry sector is South Africa’s largest consumer of energy, accounting for 41% of total consumption in 2019.1 An overall decrease in emissions since 2020 (due to COVID restrictions) exacerbated an existing downward trend since 2017, driven in part by the slowing economy.2
South Africa's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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The Minimal Carbon Dioxide Removal Reliance pathway shows an effective coal phase out from the industrial energy mix by 2030. This is achieved by an increase in electrification from 38% of industry energy demand in 2021 to 61% in 2030 and an increase in biomass from 5% to 20%.
Emissions from industrial processes contributed slightly over 5% of total emissions (excluding land use) in 2020.3 The main drivers of these emissions are the metal industries (principally the production of iron, steel and ferroalloys) and the mineral industries (mainly cement production). More efficient energy and material use, and minimising waste, will be key to cutting these emissions.
South Africa's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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South Africa's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for South Africa
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised industry sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
54
|
26 to
122
|
25 to
99
|
-3 to
40
|
-8 to
31
|
2039 to
2041
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-52 to
126%
|
-54 to
83%
|
-106 to
-26%
|
-115 to
-43%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
37
|
31 to
61
|
40 to
68
|
36 to
73
|
38 to
93
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass
per cent
|
42
|
33 to
81
|
47 to
85
|
78 to
93
|
85 to
99
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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